To: Gerald L. Kerr who wrote (11593 ) 2/18/1998 3:25:00 AM From: D Edwards Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 31646
Briefing.com take on TPRO: Y2K Focus: Recap and Reader Feedback Daily commentary updated for February 18, 1998 Last week, we published a Brief on the Year 2000 companies (Y2K) entitled " Still Searching for the $600 Billion." The theory behind our comprehensive screening of 40 Y2K companies was, and still is, that signs of the massive amount of Y2K spending estimated to be spent by US companies should start showing up on revenue and earnings reports now. We published our Brief prior to the earnings announcements of the following companies: Keane, (KEA), Information Management (IMRS), Syntel, (SYNT), and Whittman-Hart (WHIT). We predicted at that time that KEA and IMRS would both beat earnings estimates. Both beat earnings substantially, and so did WHIT. Syntel reports on 2-19. We think these results make a strong case that the bulk of Y2K spending by US Corporations is being spent on established, mid-to-large size systems integrations companies. Surprisingly, the "pure" Y2K companies, companies whose sole business is fixing the Year 2000 problem, do not seem to be capturing much of the huge market (estimated at $600 Billion over three years by Gartner Group.) Reader Feedback Many readers inquired about other Y2K stocks, and either our opinion of them, or asked why they didn't pass the screen. First of all, we love to receive feedback from our readers. Your input is shared with all the analysts here, and we take your viewpoints seriously. However, we cannot, and will not, ever offer an individual opinion as to whether a particular stock is a good investment for you. To properly answer that question requires an understanding of one's complete financial situation, especially with riskier stocks. We are simply unable to do that. However, we can provide some information as to why some stocks did not pass our screen of fundamental data. Many readers inquired about the following stocks, and we offer below a short summary of the reasons each one failed our screen of fundamental data. Keep in mind that our screening criteria is designed to show evidence of Y2K spending already coming into the company. We make no judgement on the technical qualities of anyone's solution. We are simply looking for trends in the industry. <snip> TPRO, Topro: We have great admiration for John Jenkins, CEO of Topro. Mr. Jenkins was the only CEO at the Y2K conferences we have attended who readily admits that his company's revenues will decline after the December 31, 1999 deadline. However, the company, which sells a CD-ROM Year 2000 assessment product for factory-floor assembly lines, hasn't shown much of a boom in Y2K revenues. They may indeed make some money in the Y2K business, but mostly, they are in the business of building factory-floor systems for manufacturing. As such, they are experts in embedded systems. But since TPRO sells their CD-ROM for only $2500, they just plain aren't going to be a huge player (from revenue perspective) in the Y2K market. (Even if they sell 10,000 CD-ROMS, it is only $25,000,000 in revenue over two years.) The CD-ROM may help them generate business from companies that decide to upgrade their factories, rather than remediate their current date code. But they won't take the Y2K world by storm with just a CD-ROM. TPRO failed our screen based on the failure to show four quarters of rising revenue and on current profitability. humbly submitted Dave