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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: dwight vickers who wrote (20187)2/18/1998 11:08:00 AM
From: Paul Fiondella  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 42771
 
(Off Topic) Asia

The wholesale price decline today for January was -.07 vs expected -.02. This was attributed to oil prices, but with construction booming and the effective long term bond rate reduction (like the effect of a Fed rate cut in stimulating the economy via mortgage and consumer credit rates), you would think the US economy would be racing ahead. Thus Asia as the explanation. The signals are still mixed.

Viewing HP results we can see the future. They expect competition on price from Japanese firms in the ink jet market. Their immediate response was to cut 1200 jobs. These layoffs happen without a second thought and with much greater speed than in past economic slowdowns.
Wall Street still hasn't gotten this message.

In Japan the government cannot really stimulate the economy the way the US is demanding. This is for two reasons -1- Government Keynesian economic stimulation has to be massive to have an effect -2- Japanese consumers are desperately worried about the health of the banking system and are not likely to spend money when they are worried about whether the crooks will steal their savings.

My favorite bank, Bank of Toyko --- Mitsubishi has been implicated in the Ministry of Finance scandals, the purpose of which was to hide the state of the banking system bad loans from the government and the public. Very successfully done.

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Eventually Wall Street is going to come down to earth. I wonder if the tech stock investors will get the point before its in their face? Or as my wife says, will they only get it when the TV tells them what to think? Because once its out there for the masses to "understand", you know its too late.