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Technology Stocks : Stock Swap -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Barbara Barry who wrote (12160)	2/18/1998 2:05:00 PM
From: Andrew Vance	Respond to of 17305

AV--I am never afraid to give my opinion nor go out on a limb. I have traded APM, gotten into discussions with Kevin over RDRT vs APM, called the David vs Goliath abortive takeover, and played other stocks in the DD sector. Right now, I am trying to get out of a hole dug by WDC. I was wisely/unwisely buying this stock down on its retreat. Heavy, but not enought, accumulation below 17 has helped to put me just slightly behind then 8-ball. The DD sector is to "iffy" for me right now other than trying to go even to positive with both stock and option trades. The DD sector as defined by Andrew encompasses SEG, QNTM, WDC, RDRT, APM, INNV, HTCH with possibly VECO added. While this is not the entire sector, this is my bellwhether group. I am straddling the fence here and consider this a "no man's land" right now. Take the trades as they present themselves and go for the singles, bunts, or Fielder's Choice. This is not the appropriate time to try to stretch them for for the Triple or Home Run. The prices of these stocks are low enough and trading in the lower portion of the 52 week trading range that some neat 10-30% profits could be made with extremely close attention to details and movements. I had trade APM on occasion and it has been less volatile then the others. Howwever, its "fall from grace" looks to be one of the most severe. With the under $1000 PC, I would expect sales to pick up but there is still a great deal of inventory in the supply chain. Notice how the capacity of these DD are increasing at a rapid rate??? This is the new MR and GMR technolgies (among other things) that are starting to take shape in their sector. As this transition takes place, these guys WILL recover. I just think we need to wait a few months for all the conversions, prototypes, and inventories to become more in line with the market. BTW-UTEK practically owns the lithographic process equipment market in this sector. I am also gauging the health of the DD sector by the prospects, statements, orders and earnings of UTEK as time marches on. I am going offline to generate a graph and will link it below. Be right back. techstocks.com techstocks.com Charts are 100 Days and 30 weeks. As you can easily see, both APM and WDC are definitely behind the curve. Both are excellent candidates for a worthwhile recovery WHEN they recover. This is a timing situation. for the patient, it will be a marvelous return on investment. Andrew