To: Terry Lyon who wrote (1184 ) 2/18/1998 12:45:00 PM From: pressboxjr Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 14347
Check out this post from Yahoo! If you look at the SLHO and CTAL news, you will see that SLHO has a deal with Catalytica to produce new catalysts that will "improve efficiency" and "reduce costs". At first, I thought I should run out and sell Rentech in order to buy CTAL. But the news has been out since 2/16 and CTAL is actually down since then. I'm glad I hung onto Rentech, because: 1. SLHO has been getting some insider buying lately. I think it was related to this deal. They probably realized that their "garage band" G-T-L process needed better catalysts in order to compete with Rentech. 2. If SLHO is alleged to have the most efficient and cost effective G-T-L process now - WHY do they need new catalysts? This makes me believe that even SLHO doesn't think their conversion rates are as high as they need to be--or as high as Rentech's really is. 3. Then I thought, if SLHO is having doubts about the catalysts, the efficiency, and the conversion costs, what else are they in doubt about? Maybe the doubts are due to the fact that the REAL numbers from Rentech are b-e-t-t-e-r than SLHO. Maybe, they aren't even sure if they'll need a Rentech patent just to get their test plant running. (Once they ever break ground). 4. Truthfully, no one knows which catalyst is going to work best. I guarantee that there will be several catalysts once the G-T-L process is in production. You can guess in a lab, but nothing compares to a real operating plant. It may turn out that the best catalyst is the "secret sauce" on a Big Mac. The big guys that run the G-T-L plant will license and buys whatever catalyst works best on the stuff they are processing on that site. 5. What if the best catalyst is really iron? Catalytica can't invent that--Rentech already did! There's more to a G-T-L plant than the catalyst, and Rentech is ahead of SLHO there too. No, I'm happy with Rentech. But if I owned some SLHO, I'd think about selling real soon....