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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (4887)	2/19/1998 11:17:00 AM
From: Mason Barge	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

Jurgis: I don't follow PHTN closely, I looked at it and decided against it but I'll need to get back with you. LAM can't win for losing. They announce their hot new CMP tool at 7.30 this morning, and at 8,00 this post hits Semi New: techweb.cmp.com I'm buying today, for anyone who cares. The Asia news was excellent and I don't want to miss the boat that will leave in a couple of days or a couple of months or a year or two. Who can time this sector? My working assumption at this point is that Indonesia is going to have very serious political and economic problesms, further affecting Japanese banking woes, but that otherwise, the situation in Japan and Korea will not play out any worse than currently anticipated, that is, the expected problems from the currency crisis and some bankruptcies (or in Korea's case, additional problems from unions vs. companies operating at a loss), and then a gradual recovery.

To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (4887)	2/19/1998 1:30:00 PM
From: Mason Barge	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

ORBKF vs. PHTN Here's my analysis: Category ORBKF PHTN Price 35 3 Earnings 3.00 tr loss PE 13 NA (loss) Earnings history excellent terrible Revenue growth good so so Market cap $400MM $20MM Diversity poor terrible Exposure to SE Asia poor poor Vector Vest value $70 $2.80 VV safety index .98 fair .74 poor VV "VST" (overall rec.) 1.18 hold .81 sell Shareholder equity +50% declining As you can see, my reasons are entirely investment oriented, not technical, as I think PHTN has terrific product in a growth area. But Orbotech knows how to make money and may well have the resources to put PHTN out of business altogether as it enters the FPD inspection area. PHTN has negative cash flow and may not even survive the SE Asia problem, while ORBK, although very exposed to SE Asia problems, has tons of cash and is still projected to show healthy profits for 1998, a little below flat over its huge earnings in 1997. The big difference to me is that Orbotech knows how to make money. This isn't the end of the world for me, and I included the ratings from VectorVest with the stipulation that I have had a lot of issues that VV despises, but it is a useful tool. Anyway, I did extremely well with ASYT when it had great sales and product, but was losing money, and indeed, the company got its act together. But still, all things equal, PHTN is a very big gamble while Orbotech has good growth potential combined with much better safety. I have to agree with VV and think that it is undervalued by 50%, while PHTN is a total wild card. I have held a couple of Israeli companies and, while it is somewhat unsettling because of potential for fraud in a company outside the US, I've generally had good luck, including one HUGE winner in firewall software. As a last word, PHTN is selling at PB of about 1, while ORBK must be like 5 or higher. This can mean two things though. I generally look at PB for undervalued stocks, but a low PB is also frequently indicative of a company in trouble. Service Merchandise was selling at a PB of 0.8 recently, because it's losing money.