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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: E_K_S who wrote (75442)	4/19/2024 10:11:42 PM
From: E_K_S	Respond to of 78470

This article makes a case for UGI's fair value at $27/share. I still think both the Graham No valuation & DCF model is more accurate w/ a $36/share value UGI shares in focus as ADNOC eyes AmeriGas stake By Investing.com Apr 19, 2024 07:46 PM On Friday, UGI Corporation (NYSE: UGI) came into the spotlight following a report that Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) is evaluating the purchase of a stake in its subsidiary, AmeriGas. The Bloomberg article that sparked the discussion was published earlier in the day, suggesting that ADNOC's investment could value the propane distribution company at several billion dollars. The strategic review of AmeriGas, which began in August 2023, has been a focal point for UGI. An analyst from Mizuho weighed in on the potential deal, noting that while the transaction is not guaranteed, the valuation could be positive for UGI. The specifics of the valuation are not clear, but it is assumed to refer to the enterprise value. AmeriGas currently carries approximately $2.35 billion in net debt. A valuation around $3 billion would suggest an equity value in the neighborhood of $700 million. This equity value implies a valuation multiple of approximately 7.25 times the estimated EBITDA for AmeriGas in 2025. If ADNOC were to acquire a 49% stake, it could provide roughly $350 million in capital to UGI. This figure is close to the $400 million capital infusion considered necessary for AmeriGas to reduce its leverage to below a 5.0x debt-to-EBITDA ratio, as discussed by the analyst earlier in the week. The potential deal's impact on UGI's stock valuation was also addressed. The implied $700 million equity valuation for AmeriGas, which is part of a $3 billion total valuation, would contribute about $3 per share to UGI's valuation. This aligns with the analyst's recent sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation of UGI, which has a price target of $27 per share. On an enterprise value to EBITDA basis, the deal would represent a multiple of about 7.25 times, based on the firm's 2025 projections for AmeriGas. As UGI Corporation (NYSE:UGI) navigates potential strategic moves, including the interest from ADNOC in AmeriGas, understanding the company's financial health and performance is crucial for investors. UGI's market capitalization stands at $5.36 billion, with a notable dividend yield of 6.31% as of the latest data. This high yield is supported by UGI's impressive track record of raising its dividend for 31 consecutive years, a testament to its commitment to shareholder returns. Despite recent challenges reflected in a negative revenue growth rate of -18.66% over the last twelve months as of Q1 2024, analysts predict net income growth for UGI this year. This projection is an important consideration for investors, as it may signal a turnaround from the unprofitability over the last twelve months. Moreover, the company's long history of maintaining dividend payments, now for 54 consecutive years, provides a degree of reassurance regarding its financial resilience.