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Pastimes : Ask Mohan about the Market -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Thomas F. O'Connor who wrote (14293)2/18/1998 11:43:00 PM
From: Michael  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 18056
 
Thomas,

However, if the degree of political corruption is minimal, a currency board will work

I think that sums up why I don't think its a flyer. Furthermore the concept of the currency board to me is similar to the Gold Standard except the medium of exchange is dollars. With both these standards the key issue is credible reserves.

IMF plan will never work because it will not stabilize the currency. In fact, stabilization of the currency is not even mentoned in their plan!

I think the IMF objective is to stabilise the financial system and provide an orderly environment for resolving the problems. I'm not saying that this won't involve pain for a lot of people, but at least it will provide a basis for going forward. A stable exchange rate would be a by-product IF they can get this to work. Funnily enough despite the questionable status of the currency board now the Rup has appreciated over 10% in the last two days

What cancellation has there been? Has the idea of the currency board been cancelled? Couldn't find this on ay of my Net sources.

There was a report in the Singapore Biz Times yesterday. I can't find the story today because they change their 'In the News' stories daily but the link below refers to it and gives an update. It appears yesterdays report was premature, its not dead yet.

asia1.com.sg

The currency boards would have a very important impact on the dollar and gold, especially if it became an important way of solving the Southeast Asia currency problems for several countries,

I guess as I said above, I view this as another version of the Gold Standard except using Dollars. I can see lots of problems and potential abuses with that. While its worked for HK (and ever there its come under pressure) I'm not sure how it would play out. After all for the last five years or so all the ASEAN currencies were essentially pegged, and that's what caused this current meltdown.

If it did work what do you think it would do to Gold.?

Regards