To: craig crawford who wrote (5366 ) 2/18/1998 5:28:00 PM From: David Pawlak Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10479
>>So you are essentially saying that Osicon has another 3-6 months of crummy numbers that they can justify?>> First of all, don't twist my words around into what you would like to hear. All I'm saying is that you can't expect Osicom, or any company for that matter, to show a dramatic jump in sales the first qtr with a new product like the Gigamux where evaluations are required. The sales will ramp up, starting with a insignificant amount in Q4 for the Gigamux and I'm expecting it to increase dramatically on a percentage basis on a qtr to qtr basis. While the revenue jump should be dramatic on a % basis, significant revenue contributions (>$5 million) probably won't be realized until Q2 - Q3. But who knows, it could be sooner, as I've been hearing about some pretty spectacular test results.... The need is definately there and the product fills the need. Will they make the $.11 number in Q4? We'll see in a couple weeks. Personally I'm expecting $.09, give or take $.02. My model shows they could make $.12 on $35 million revenues if they skimped on R&D, Sales Marketing & G&A. I don't expect that to be the case and I wouldn't want it to be the case. Personally, I don't care if they make $.11 or $.05, as long as they are making serious progress towards attaining big time contracts for the GigaMux, IQX-200 and NetARM which requires lots of face time in front of potential customers for the first 2 (travel) and travel and installation expenses for GigaMux installations. (I'm not trying to make excuses, just explaining what I'm expecting). If spent wisely, the extra expenses they shell out now could/should pay off big time 6 months down the road. Example: Osicom personally installs the GigaMux at an evaluators' lab. Sure it is costly to send a team of techie's to an evaluators lab (domestic and International) but it could mean the difference between installing the units correctly or incorrectly.... which can translate into good or bad test results. What is far more important to me is how many evaluators are currently testing and the results of those tests. I don't give a crap about short term gains that diminish long term prospects. >>You seem to be the one with the most intimate knowledge of this company. Hmmm...a coincidence?<< What are you implying? That I work for the company? Well, I don't. But if I did, I would request that 75% of my pay be in options, as I believe that the company is positioning itself for rapid growth in the very near future. My intimate knowledge comes from my fascination with the tricks of the shorts, the unrealized potential of the company's technology, and the deep discount to what the company is truely worth on a break-up basis. Basiscally, the more crap the shorts throw at this company, the more digging I do into those claims and the more I find out that I like about this company.