To: mattie who wrote (1052 ) 2/18/1998 4:48:00 PM From: NeuroInvestment Read Replies (1) | Respond to
The selling was due to the report of Dow Corning offering a $3 billion settlement to breast implant patients, and worries that this sets the model for a Redux settlement. It does not, for several reasons including; 1) Dow Corning clearly knew of problems associated with product failure (i.e. the structural integrity of the implant) and did not respond to them. Interneuron did not know of a body of valvular evidence until June...which undercuts any claim of corporate malfeasance 2) Dow's product failed in a foreseeable context; the importance of keeping its contents inside the implant, rather than dissipating through the body. Redux did not fail in a foreseeable context, if valvular difficulties end up being associated with Redux in some portion of the population, this is not a context that was foreseeable based on anything known beforehand (and the pulmonary hypertension incidence of 44 out of one million certainly would not stand up as predictive)..pharmaceutical companies are not held liable for the unforeseeable. 3) The spectre of an implant trial for DowCorning is of otherwise healthy, often attractive (given their interest in focusing on cosmetic implants) individuals who had a device fail, and now must have what is left of it surgically removed, its contents irretrievable. A Redux trial, which I doubt will ever come to pass, would involve overweight individuals with a plethora of preexisting medical conditions, whose termination of the treatment involved a simple cessation of medication. The three trials to be unveiled over the next three months will confirm what the absence of recent 'reports' of valvular changes hints at; that any association with valvular pathology will be duration-related, and small-scale. The estimate I published in January was that the out of pocket cost to IPIC after AHPs share and insurance would not exceed $20 million. Today's price action illustrates herd effect and a lack of quality information on the street; people can certainly take advantage of these fluctuations, but it is flawed reasoning to see price moves as reflecting anything more substantive than fear. One can make money on fear, but over the long run that is not going to be the determining factor in IPIC's valuation. NeuroInvestment (www.neuroinv.com)
