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To: Maurice Winn who wrote (12691)	7/16/2024 2:24:36 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 13784

Immigration is soaring. Here’s what it’s doing to the labor market. Wage growth is dampened when more workers enter the labor force and labor-market tightness eases. And when wage growth cools off, so does inflation. Europe, Japan, South Korea, and China can only dream of attracting those immigrants Published: July 15, 2024 at 3:23 p.m. ET By Maya Levine Millions of immigrants are entering the country and joining the workforce The strong migration flow into the U.S. over the past few years is easing tight labor markets, according to a Monday letter by Evgeniya Duzhak, a regional policy economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. In 2023, a net total of 3.3 million immigrants came into the U.S., the Congressional Budget Office estimated. In January, the CBO predicted another 3.3 million people on net would immigrate to the country in 2024. Duzhak’s up-to-date data suggest that figure will be closer to 3.8 million this year, with a spike in undocumented immigrants having driven estimates way up, Duzhak wrote. Last year’s immigration estimates for 2023 and 2024 were about 2 million people short of this year’s numbers, she said. According to Duzhak, the unusually high number of immigrants is helping to ease tight labor markets, which have been marked by a high number of job vacancies and a low unemployment rate, indicating a worker shortage. When immigrants enter the workforce, many become employed, reducing the number of job vacancies, Duzhak noted. Others cannot find work, which increases the unemployment rate. Together, these changes decrease the ratio of job vacancies to unemployment, signaling easing labor-market tightness. “Overall, my estimates suggest that around one-fifth of the easing of labor-market tightness in 2023 can be attributed to the spike in immigration,” Duzhak said. Labor-market tightness varies by region, with the dynamic less pronounced in states where many immigrants end up living. In New York and New Jersey, where courts heard the most new immigration cases by far in 2023, labor markets are the least tight. North Dakota, by comparison, sees very few immigration cases and has the tightest labor market in the country. Duzhak found that when a state’s immigration cases doubled, its vacancy-to-unemployment ratio dropped 16% as more workers joined the labor force. Because many immigrants have not yet joined the labor force due to lengthy work-authorization processes — and because estimates point to an ongoing flow of migrants into the U.S. — Duzhak predicts that labor-market tightness will continue to ease at least through the end of 2024. Wage growth is dampened when more workers enter the labor force and labor-market tightness eases. And when wage growth cools off, so does inflation. Addressing inflation and immigration is a priority for both candidates in the upcoming presidential election. On immigration, Republican nominee and former President Donald Trump intends to secure the border and undertake “the largest domestic deportation operation in American history,” targeting nearly 15 million people. Not only would this project be costly for the federal government, but the labor market would tighten upon millions of workers leaving the country. President Joe Biden recently announced pathways for more noncitizens to stay and work in the U.S. — but, like Trump, the president wants to curb immigration. Some of Biden’s recent actions to this end include restricting asylum and increasing enforcement at the border. Biden’s policies target undocumented immigrants in particular — the population driving the recent surge in immigration which has saved taxpayers money, strengthened the economy and eased tight labor markets. To be sure, diminishing labor-market tightness isn’t always a good thing. Were the unemployment rate to increase too much, the continuing stream of immigrant workers into the labor force could put a strain on the labor market, leaving many people without jobs and driving wages down. marketwatch.com

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (12691)	8/14/2024 3:36:18 AM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13784

People leave New Zealand in record numbers as economy bites MQ South Africa lost the good people and the bottom of the barrel stayed on. Actual;ly lots of S. Africans moved to New Zealand. Lucy Craymer Tue, Aug 13, 2024, 9:12 AM GMT+32 min read 50 By Lucy Craymer WELLINGTON (Reuters) - People are leaving New Zealand in record numbers as unemployment rises, interest rates remain high and economic growth is anaemic, government statistics show. Data released by Statistics New Zealand on Tuesday showed that 131,200 people departed New Zealand in the year ended June 2024, provisionally the highest on record for an annual period. Around a third of these were headed to Australia. While net migration, the number of those arriving minus those leaving, remains at high levels, economists also expect this to wane as the number of foreign nationals wanting to move to New Zealand falls due to the softer economy. The data showed of those departing 80,174 were citizens, which was almost double the numbers seen leaving prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. Merrily Allen is currently planning her move with her partner and 14-year-old daughter in early 2025 to Hobart on the Australian island state of Tasmania "There is a lot of opportunity over there. They're always, always looking for people in my profession,” said Allen, who works in dental administration. "I've got a lot of friends that have gone (to Australia) ... purely because of better work opportunities, better living. Australia just seems to have it together." During the pandemic, encouraged by the then government's handling of the outbreak, New Zealanders living overseas returned home in historically high numbers. But the love affair with the country of 5.3 million, is over for some. Economists say New Zealanders frustrated by the cost of living, high interest rates and fewer job opportunities, are looking to Australia, the UK and elsewhere. New Zealand’s economy is struggling after the central bank hiked cash rates 521 basis points in its most aggressive tightening since the official cash rate was introduced in 1999. The economy annual growth of 0.2% in the first quarter, unemployment rose to 4.7% in the second quarter and inflation remains high at 3.3%. Furthermore, Australia has been recruiting and offering relocation packages in areas such as nursing, policing and teaching where they have skill shortages attracting New Zealanders, who do not need visas to work there. At the same time, the New Zealand government has undertaken a significant downsizing of the country’s public service leaving many skilled worked looking for jobs. (Reporting by Lucy Craymer; Editing by Michael Perry) finance.yahoo.com