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Technology Stocks : Fonix:Voice Recognition Product (FONX) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Fairways9 who wrote (1649)	2/18/1998 8:13:00 PM
From: Dr. Bob	Respond to of 3347

Marc, Thanks for the info on low turnover at fonix - I don't believe anyone gave me that answer to my question when it was posed earlier. No, I didn't go to the bother of calling fonix to confirm that myself at the time - I surely thought people who were long on the stock would be motivated to do so. "Siemens recent actions seem to indicate they were impressed with something" - impressed enough to use it, yes - and I've always been open to that possibility. Impressed enough to pay big bucks for it? - not to my way of thinking. "Can't fonix co-exist with many other VSR companies?" Sure, and I've been open to that possibility, too. But I'm going to TRY to put my money on the company(s) that will be the leaders. If I was convinced that fonix was not going to survive, I would be shorting it, and I have clearly not done so. As to your impression that I used to seem more objective, maybe it seemed that way when I was arguing with Mr. Pink. But the fact is, I have consistently said that I accepted the possibility that fonix had a saleable product, I just doubted that they could generate sufficient earnings to make this stock a big winner, which it had to be, in my book, to justify the risk. I've had concerns about the exclusivity of the patents for quite awhile (see post #1033, Aug. 5). You and I debated the size of potential revenues back in August, too. See post #1105 - I think that says almost precisely then what I'm saying now. While you're back there, look at the rest of my posts from that time frame, and tell me how you think my outlook has changed. For the moment, I still think the only successful investment strategy for this stock has been one you proposed, I believe, to trade in and out, and it still looks that way to me. Bob

To: Fairways9 who wrote (1649)	2/18/1998 9:05:00 PM
From: john harris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3347

Marc: Sorry to see that Bob is taking such a pounding here. I believe it is unwarranted as he has been quite balanced in his posting to this thread. As you know, I have been short this stock since last summer. Yesterday, I had a knee-jerk reaction to close out 1/3 the position at 3.875. After analyzing the numbers, I will hold the remaining short. Tech stocks are an interesting breed. I have only learned of their make-up and the true speculative nature of emerging markets by being on the wrong side (long side, BTW)of several transactions in the past. I have been on the long side of several stocks that had some great technology and even better headlined deals. The wait for the "contracts" and validation of the technology can seem endless. When it comes and the market gives a bounce and the naysayers are still out there, it makes the experience even that much more infuriating. At that point I don't want to know about any negatives because my company has just proven itself. Anyone with a contrary opinion in the face of the reality of the press release that is there in black and white has got to be carrying some baggage. I know it. I've been there. I will say that I think Bob has been one of the most credible people that I have come across on SI and is not carrying the baggage that may be assumed of others on this thread (Jerry String you know who you are; and Franco, you too for a little balance). The long side on FONX believes that it has gotten the validation that was necessary to put their company into the big leagues. The stock has recovered from those nasty days in December. The company has told people on the phone that there is at least one more deal coming before the end of the quarter with another company in its industry...revenue producing. There is no mention by the company regarding the second deal of the many millions that were bandied about with the Siemens deal. After further thought on the matter today, I have decided to hold my short position. For many reasons. The extreme precariousness of the financial status of this company and the lack of credibility of the management are two of the paramount reasons. Many a great technology has been grounded for these very two reasons. Some people have in the past compared FONX to Noise Cancellation Technologies. I think that there are parallels. See the many "deals" signed over there in the 4th quarter of last year. See the lack of performance of its stock price in that time. Talk to people in their business as to whether their technology is real. Then ask yourself why the stock has actually dropped since these announcements. The deals are very similar to the Siemens/FONX deal. They are long shots. If they "hit" big, then the long side has a big winner. If they don't, well, then you are left saying to yourself..."why didn't I pay attention to anything else besides the potential for the technology?" All of above is just one man's opinion. Easy on the flames everyone. Afterthought: It just occurred to me that an endorsement of credibility from a short on this thread may actually be a negative to Bob's image. Sorry, Bob! :-)