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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: E_K_S who wrote (75659)	5/18/2024 7:54:01 AM
From: FIFO_kid2	5 Recommendations Recommended By Area51 E_K_S JohnyP Lance Bredvold Sean Collett Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78953

EKS -I agree with most of your assessment. Copper has risen tremendously because of a few reasons both India and Indonesia( #1 and #4 in population) has doubled demand in recent years just from economic progress and supply from Chile has dwindled by quite a bit as well as First Quantum's mine in Panama which equated to 4% of the world's supply has been shut in by the government. My exposure in the space is Amerigo Resources a higher cost tailings processor In Chile not exposed to the greatly increased taxation imposed on the sector. It is a company I tend to trade and last acquired when it last yielded a 12% dividend. Usually I sell this between $1.20-$1.40 but with the fundamentals quite strong for a very weak economy I am keeping it for now. l finally sold all of my smallish position in CCJ @ $48.90 average at the open on their earnings release which has a large proportion of production hedged at a price much lower than spot. I think it is quite a bit overvalued but with more money printing it has the potential to turn into a cult stock from the carbon fanatics which I thought could happen. So it appears it was a wrong decision at the moment however,I still hold a full position of Kazatomprom KAP.L and is my second largest position. Currently, the market is getting major relief from the recent money printing scheme the fed has initiated at the last FOMC meeting ironically the fed responded positively before a market disaster -a first if I can recall. A guess why ? The treasury is desperate for money and the international buyers have dried up so the buyer of last resort has to step in. However, I agree this market is a potential setup for a disaster Besides the very high valuation for a large proportion of the market another huge risk going forward you didn't even mention- the proposed changes to the tax code for LTCG in 2025 which is to be taxed at a higher rate than the current top bracket for ordinary income with absolutely no consideration to the ravages of inflation which I would peg really averaged over the long term somewhere between 7-10% for the basic living expenses provided you didn't include the hedonic adjustment games the government tacks on to make the rate much lower i.e the massive depreciation of tech equipment as an example. So a LT portfolio I estimate would have to really earn somewhere between 14-20% to break even for a wealthy person. The S&P index averages 9%. If you were rich what would you do in 2024 if this tax change were real? The reason why I am concerned the wealthy owns most of the stock not the poor. Using the assumption these tax rates were permanent after the crash investing behavior would change to favor short term strategies like options and AI trading bots. Buffetology would be a relic. imagine that.