Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sepku who wrote (14810)	2/18/1998 10:05:00 PM
From: Matt Webster	Respond to of 25960

Style, I don't know if there are substitutes. The current substitute seems to be to use 0.35 micron technology for things we thought needed 0.25. Presumably, we can use 0.25 for previously 0.18 applications, etc. So we're substituting improving old processes for investing in new ones. That's not good for our stock, at least not now. What's the analogy? Intel is supposed to have a monopoly on x86 chips. Well, if it's trying to sell the Pentium II, but customers discover a new, cheaper way to keep using old Pentiums, then that's a problem. We're not substituing an alternative technology, we're substituting incremental tweaking of old technology. It could be that CYMI really is a bottleneck and really is a monopolist. The prices for its lasers may be so high that it is not rational for its customers to buy them when they could buy the older, incrementally improved i-line stuff. That's an interpretation we haven't considered. Maybe CYMI needs to cut prices to stimulate volume and thereby increase profits. Then, when it's time to fight off XRL or EUV five years from now, CYMI can play the part the i-line people are playing now. How long are we willing to wait? Just a thought, Matt