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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: the traveler who wrote (1458289)

5/23/2024 7:34:25 AM

From: Brumar89

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rdkflorida2

Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 1579883

President Biden’s chances of winning re-election are currently 58.8%.

The U.S. stock market is one of the best predictors of whether the incumbent party will win a presidential election.

That’s important to know because of the widely mixed messages of the electronic prediction markets, to which many until now have turned to get reliable predictions. Many fans of those markets have of late become disillusioned by these mixed messages. For example, a survey of a handful of the best-known prediction markets earlier this week revealed that, depending on your focus, the probability that President Joe Biden will win re-election currently ranges from below 38% to a high of 76%. That’s so wide a range that it’s difficult to place much weight on any of the predictions.

What about other economic, financial and sentiment indicators? To find out, I analyzed the U.S. stock market, the economy as measured by real GDP, the Conference Board’s consumer-confidence index and the University of Michigan’s consumer-sentiment survey. In each case, I focused on their year-to-date changes as of Election Day. Only one — the stock market — was significantly correlated with the incumbent party’s chance of winning (at the 95% confidence level that statisticians often use when deciding if a pattern is genuine).

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The stock market has already chosen a winner in the 2024 presidential election (msn.com)