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Technology Stocks : ADC Telecommunications -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: NW Bronco Fan who wrote (347)2/18/1998 9:27:00 PM
From: Nevin S.  Respond to of 1944
 
If ADCT's products were consumer related, I'd be inclined to agree with your comments. I'm new to ADCT but from what I gather they sell infrastructure to RBOCs and other communication service providers and I'm hard pressed to see a scenario where ADCT's customers would accelerate orders or load up on product just because the payment terms became more attractive.

I did notice the same things you did and I am curious about the decline in cash and increase in A/R. One thing positive I did note was that they paid down some debt. Usually a good use of spare cash and an indicator that management is confident in prospects for the future.



To: NW Bronco Fan who wrote (347)2/19/1998 8:08:00 AM
From: Paul Dubsky  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 1944
 
If it does, I'd be a big buyer.

On a macro level, the telecom equipment sector will be a winning sector for years to come due to the need for increasing bandwidth. George Gilder himself predicts that wealth creation will transfer from silicon wafers to bandwidth. If ADC can keep up with the industry, and there doesn't seem any reason why they can't (afterall, only several months ago they were the darlings of Wall St, like Tellabs is today), then you will make big money over the span of 3 - 5 years.

I consider everyday if I should trade ADCT or just hold. Sure, trading gets you short term money. But it also gets you heartache, taxes, and to a lesser extent, commissions.

So, buy on the dips. As is frequently the case, investors don't alsways catch the bottom price of a security, so you just average down, assuming the fundamentals are still strong. Also, the new cap gains tax law favors holding in excess of 1 year, and even more so, 2+ years.

It will be interesting to see where we end up after today's trading. If HWP can finish higher on a day they released BELOW expectations, well.....