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To: j t jackson who wrote (14827)	2/18/1998 10:46:00 PM
From: BillyG	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25960

Japan worries fab gear suppliers A service of Semiconductor Business News, CMP Media Inc. Story posted at 6 p.m. EST/3 p.m. PST, 2/18/98 By Jack Robertson NEW YORK -- A looming semiconductor downturn in Japan has investment analysts and equipment suppliers more worried than they are about Korea's financial health, according to panelists at the annual Investors Conference of the Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI) here today. "The real issue is what will happen in Japan," said James Morgan, chairman of Applied Materials Inc., the world's largest semiconductor capital equipment supplier based in Santa Clara, Calif. "The semiconductor companies there are only beginning to assess their capital spending plans. It's hard to guess now what they will do." Morgan said the South Korean chip makers will curtail their capital investment sharply this year, although some firms are continuing to buy a little equipment for technology upgrades of current production lines. "Korea accounts for about 6-7% of Applied Material's total sales, so it is not a severe impact for us," he added. "Other parts of the world will step in to fill any void left by the Korean companies." Semiconductor analyst Byron Walker of Alex Brown & Son said he feared that Japanese companies could cut back capital spending more than 20% in fiscal 1998. Elliott Rogers, Jr., managing director of Deutsche Morgan Grenfell, also said he believed Taiwan fab expenditures were being overestimated. "Only three of 10 Taiwan semiconductor firms we monitor are expecting to increase capital expenditures this year," he said. Principal analyst Jonathan Joseph of NationsBanc Montgomery Securities also said he believed Taiwan chip growth was over-blown. "We are already seeing some slowdown in Taiwan. We expect to see growth in Taiwan in the single digits this year or very low double digits," Joseph added. techweb.cmp.com

To: j t jackson who wrote (14827)	2/18/1998 10:51:00 PM
From: TideGlider	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

That would be an argument that could be made under the circumstance that you posted. A chip maker could buy it and the problems would not be the same as they would be supplying the stepper manufacturers. I think there are many scenarios. Maybe Mr. Fleck will buy it and grow hot house tomatoes and wacky weed for those times when he feels squeezed... TG

To: j t jackson who wrote (14827)	2/18/1998 11:51:00 PM
From: Angela	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

You beat me to it -- I was thinking about how sticky it would be to have ASML selling lasers to its competitors -- Nikon, Canon, SVG (or vice versa). Gee -- I wonder who's orders would be filled first if there were a shortage? Currently ASML, Canon and Nikon are shareholders, although I don't know the percentages. Personally, I wouldn't view a takeover by any of them as a positive event long term. On the other hand, I've heard AMAT's Morgan say in print and on Cnbc that the company has covered all bases except lithography and that they are considering expanding into that area. Angela