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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Qone0 who wrote (86755)	6/11/2024 7:19:42 PM
From: ajtj99	1 Recommendation Recommended By towerdog Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 96832

I think it's going to run up to $3.50 on spot, then bang between $3.10 and $3.50 until we get a big hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. That should spike it up to $5.00. Further out months are getting sticky with the higher prices. Lots of regions were selling NatGas at $1.53 to $1.80 the past couple of weeks due to regulatory and supply issues. With the NatGas burning utility plants able to be flex users of NatGas, that excess supply has been drying up fast as summer hits and supply on hand is now falling back into the 5-year storage trend band. My average cost for the month of June in my work pool is $1.80, but I was able to buy a bunch of it lower than that. It started spiking last Thursday and has not stopped. I locked in the remainder of the month that morning, but I still paid a premium for having waited an extra day to lock. It's really hard to know when that excess supply will dry up. You have no visibility. You just have to try and project using historic norms and the deviations from that, which is really tough. The NYMEX low was in the end of February, but it took until late May/early June for the regional markets to put their lows behind. Some areas in the US were still selling NatGas at $1.10 in the end of May! You can see it in the EIA report from June 6.