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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cytokine1 who wrote (4141)	2/19/1998 12:58:00 AM
From: Vector1	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9719

Cyto, No question GENZL has been a disappointment. I was holding to see if they could post another strong quarter of sequential sales growth. The valuation is not great and the product works. Things tend to change slowly in the area of medical procedures as surgeons tend to be fairly conservative. The mistake here was buying too early. I don't want to compound it by selling just before the honey comes in. At HQ Henri Temeer made a special point of saying that he was very positive about GENZL's prospects. On the other hand I am unhappy with the money they are spending on the Diacrin JV. They are getting no value for it in their stock price and it is artificially increasing the breakeven. What do the other threadsters think V1

To: Cytokine1 who wrote (4141)	2/19/1998 1:05:00 AM
From: Vector1	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9719

The following are excerpts from a report by Elise Wang who is Paine Weber's biotech analyst: -- Diacrin (DCRN) is rated buy (1). This company is at the forefront of xenotransplantation. Diacrin recently received approval from the FDA for the first ever to be conducted Phase II human clinical studies using porcine fetal cells. We expect clinical events related to its lead products, NeuroCell(-PD, NeuroCell(-HD and NeuroCell(-FE to drive price appreciation. Our 12-month price target is $18.00-21.00 based on our 2001 estimated EPS of $2.00 discounted 38-42% with a 30 multiple. Genzyme Tissue Repair (GENZL) is rated buy (1). With FDA regulatory approval and considerable clinical data collected to data, GENZL's lead product, Carticel, is poised to demonstrate accelerated sales growth over the next few years. Our 12-month price target is $17.00-20.00 based on our 2000 estimated EPS of approximately $1.50 discounted 30-35% with a 25 multiple. Genzyme Transgenics (GZTC) is rated buy (1). We believe this company has established a leading position in the development and production of genetically engineered proteins using transgenic technology. We expect the stock to respond favorable as the company announces additional collaborations and clinical progress with its lead product, transgenic ATIII. Our 12-month price target is $13.00-16.00 based on our 2001 earnings of $1.90 discounted 30-35% with a 25 multiple.