Thoughts of 'ANOTHER' on gold
<<Another's basic thesis is that some of the major players among the Oil Producers have basically agreed with (dictated to?) the Western Economies that oil will be effectively priced in Gold. Therfore these Western Economies have manipulated the POG down to keep the nominal cost of a barrel low in US Dollar terms.>>
<<Have I got that right ??>>
It seems that the west has agreed to 'demonitize' gold; and treat it as just another commodity in order to keep its price hovering around the cost of production, rather than it monetary value.
***** from ANOTHER *******************************
The US$ is today, backed by oil. As all other currencies are but "digital units" tied directly to the dollar, they are indirectly on the oil standard also. This world currency position is supported thru the BIS. In CB circles, it is well known that the world debt markets as we know them, can only be maintained with cheap and cheaper oil! Without cheap oil the entire system fails and reverts back to pay as you go economies. This is the central reason for "two price gold".
With gold discounted to it's production cost and below, those that have it can trade it for it's monetary value. Make no mistake, the BIS knows gold in the many thousands. The future "reset value" of gold is the key. "support the dollar with oil and the currency system works" "fail the currencies and the dollar will come off the oil standard and the BIS will reset gold to $10,000+ with many conditions"
There is only one oil state that counts! Only one! They have made it very clear how important gold is to them. If they had started buying outright, gold would have gone to $5,000+ in days. And only a very few million ozs. would have been purchased! The message has been for some years, "we will accumulate thru the back door, using paper deals if you keep the price at or below the cost of production". Do this and oil will remain THE driving force of the world economy!
FAIL THIS AND WE WILL PRICE GOLD IN DOLLARS AT THE TRUE VALUE OF OIL TO THE WORLD!
You see, gold is not a commodity. The CBs have used every weapon to keep its price low. Understand me, Gold is now, today, a devalued currency being used in world trade! Do you think the CBs are selling gold to keep the dollar strong? They don't have to sell to accomplish that feat! CB gold one billion ozs.? valued at it's current commodity price is only worth 300 billion, it's nothing in that price range! They know what it's US$ price is worth in terms of oil!
***** end ANOTHER *******************************
<<If that's so then surely the first question is where/how have these Oils Producers got the leverage to make the West agree to this. As we speak OPEC are having an emergency meeting to discuss the recent slump in the Oil price. That's not the act of a group with the kind of leverage such a deal would imply.>>
<<think the oil producers made their point in the 70's. They have their hand on the financial jugular of the west. The current 'emergency' meetings are only IMO to discuss curtailing production, and to what level, how much by whom etc, because the Asian crisis has changed the demand portion of the price equation. >>
***** from ANOTHER *******************************
The supply of oil was a problem in the 70s. Several nations actually cut off the supply to make a political point. Many thought that the "embargo" was an attempt at "cornering" the oil market. We may never know the true reasons for the large increase in the price of oil, but one thing is clear. The value of oil in today's economy is of far greater importance to maintaining present "asset values" than at any time in the past. Today, the future value of all commerce is "well bid" into every asset value! Without oil in good supply , at a currency price that allows a reasonable lifestyle, all assets would lose much relative value.
***** end ANOTHER *******************************
<<What could they do. An embargo like the 70's could not be organised today, firstly because Oil Production is not as concentrated as it was then, secondly all the Majors have strategic political ties/dependencies on the West that makes it politically infeasible and finally most of them desperately need the money !.>>
<<Secondly assuming it was true, what's the exit strategy. If gold stays down then there is no benefit to the Oily boys, as they don't gain anything. If the assumption is its all going to go up at some stage then what's the west going to do. "They" now have all the Gold and nobody can afford to buy their oil anymore. Why would the West agree to a strategy that would make them vulnerable in that way?.>>
***** from ANOTHER *******************************
Many look to the middle east and say "they control the oil market no more". I say "you see not what is in front of your eyes"! They do not have to keep oil up in price to control it. One can gain more wealth by keeping oil down than by driving it up, much more! And what is the value of this type of manipulation?
it is measured in gold! Tell me now, what gain is there to destroy the world economy with high cost oil when they will provide you gold instead?
***** end ANOTHER *******************************
<<To use his words all 'Paper Gold' including shares in Miners etc will be "consumed". The only safe strategy therefore is to invest in physical.
What does this mean? Every Gold Mine in the world will ne Nationalised ?. By Whom, on what basis, and if so what then ? The implications of that statement are major and he does not seem to provide much in the way of justification for it.>>
Would we see another 'gold confiscation' here in the USA??? Numismatics would ROCKET!
***** from ANOTHER *******************************
Invest in gold mines, will you? Notice how quick the Australian CB hinted at taking "gold in the ground" if needed. This was said after their sale! The nature of the coming crisis will make the taking of investor property a piece of cake. You see, because gold is a commodity, you will be compensated at the commodity price of return + a fair profit, of course.
***** end ANOTHER *******************************
Not only has 'Big Trader' broken the deal, or LBMA selling paper; from Frank Veneroso I quote:
***** from Veneroso************************
Now Fritz Plass the veteran senior gold trader at Deutsche Bank, who sees a lot of the business, made a statement at an investment conference in New York -- in the first quarter I think or maybe the beginning of the second quarter of last year. And he said that it is widely realized in the dealer community that the Chinese have accumulated 1,000 tons of reserve gold, not just 400 tons of reserve gold, and possibly significantly more.
So I think there's no doubt that China has done buying- some considerable buying. Some of it's for a trading position. And some of it might be for reserve accumulation. Japan is another thing. I don't know what to make of Japan. There is a friend of mine who is very well placed who swears that the Ministry of Finance has actually done some gold buying. And I've gotten another report from someone out of England who claims to know the man on the desk in Japan at the Ministry of Finance that actually did it. There is no data on it. I can't imagine it would be very large. It is not in the central bank. It is not part of official reserves.
The only intriguing statement about this that has been made was Hashimoto's statement one day in New York at Columbia University when he said that we the Japanese and other Asians- or other central banks who have bought all these dollar securities have been tempted, from time to time, to sell Treasuries and buy gold.
But everyone else in the bureaucracy in Japan wouldn't confirm that there was any such deliberations in Japan. And that it was just an offhand, and not a very serious, statement made by Hashimoto.
I don't think anything much is happening in the case of the Japanese. But there is some evidence that there may be some small amount of accumulation by the (MOF).
***** end Veneroso************************
<<His thesis is beguiling if you accept the assumptions but those need IMHO to address serious challenges before they can be considered credible.
***** from ANOTHER *******************************
ALL: I do not offer to prove my thoughts. If what is written was easy for all to find, the information would be of no use to you. Many will take no motions to change their ways and protect worth. Such is life.
Each will chose his way and as always the future will teach the truth.
***** end ANOTHER *****************************
Another did hit the POG low on the head:
On January 12th gold did dip below $280, it didn't get very far as strong buying came in and drove the POG back up.
***** from ANOTHER on January 10th *************
a CB values the wishes of oil far above it's return of leased gold! Hear me now, "if gold tries to go lower than US$ $280 the BIS will buy it OUTRIGHT in the OPEN for all to see"! They must! They will! I know. For no currency system could stand if "Oil" were to bid for gold!
***** and from January 11th *******************************
Mr. A. Goose: The BIS is not a broker or trading house. They do not move with chart patterns or wall street directives. If gold drifts under 280 for any period of time, they must act to forstall a much worse outcome. That being; Oil will not allow Lbma to drive gold so low as to make the CBs the only suppliers. Oil will bid for gold and in doing so create an "oil currency" out of it. That outcome would make the current "currency debts" bonds next to worthless and turn the financial system upside down.
***** end ANOTHER *******************************
***ANOTHER's Predictions***
Watch oil! If it rises much and gold isn't sold off then the game is over.
The third world markets are the first to go as their currencies are crushed time and time again. Europe will be next, closely followed by the USA!
Turn slowly now and view all directions. The wealth that was had was not real. The Pacific Rim started, now South America. Next will be Europe closely followed by the US. Remember, all currencies are the same now as they are "digital paper"! Nations will defend the system at all cost They will never sell US$ treasury debt as that debt is their currency! The dollar will soar as a final defense! As part of this defense they will allow oil to rise as oil is priced in dollars. How do you get oil to rise? Today, we stop our CBs from selling gold!
When is this going to happen? I have no idea. Is there anything to look for that will tell us when the problems have started? At first the US$ and gold will go up together against all other assets!
**************end ANOTHER*********************************
Looking forward to hearing from others who have thoughts of ANOTHER.
CG. |
