Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Ride the Tiger with CD -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dara who wrote (304349)	7/20/2024 9:04:06 AM
From: dara	5 Recommendations Recommended By 31Floors Arran Yuan bull_dozer LoneClone onepath Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 312313

COTS as of July 17, 2024 Whoa, Nelly! The Major Indices and Gold Pullback from All Time Highs This past week gold hit a new all time high and pulled back closing the week at $2,399.10. The HUI (or gold bugs index) made the same move making a high and pulling back. The HUI is under performing the underlying metal as it has not yet made new all time highs. Both gold and the HUI are well above their 200 dma and are no longer overbought. Interestingly, for the HUI the 200 dma has crossed over the 300 dma which is a bullish indicator. Typically in corrections the 200 dma is support. Silver followed gold's lead and pulled back from $31 to close on Friday at $29.30. Silver continues to work off its overbought condition and is well above its 200 dma. The MACD just made a bearish crossover move. Traders I follow see this as a buying opportunity and are legging into new positions. Dr. Copper, a reference to the price of copper as a leading indicator for the strength of the US economy, continues its correction from $5.20 currently trading down to $4.24. Copper is approaching oversold territory and is nearing its 200 dma. Traders I follow continue to watch for a buy level. This week platinum has corrected along with gold closing the week out at $973.90 down from a recent high of $1,100.00 still trading in a range of $950 to $1,100. Platinum is approaching its 200 dma again and is nearing an oversold condition. Palladium is weaker pulling back to $902.30. It is oversold and trading below its 200 dma. WTIC is pulling back from its recent high of $84 closing the week out at $78.64. It is just above its 200 dma and is approaching oversold. The MACD has made a bearish crossover. Traders I follow are short the WTIC. Natgas continues its move down from recent highs closing the week out at $2.13. It is approaching oversold and is below its 200 dma. This week the US$ had a small bounce from the low of $103.50 closing the week at $104.11. The US$ was weakening due to anticipation the Fed will cut rates in September as the US economy is slowing as inflation readings decrease. It is believed that the Bank of Japan continues to intervene in the currency markets to strength the yen. For the same reasons, the yield on the 10 year US treasury had a small bounce and the yield now stands at 4.24. Expectations of a Republican win in the US presidential election and a move towards more protectionist policies which includes moving away from a strong dollar policy has been weighing on the dollar in recent weeks. It would also be likely that this will be Jay Powell's last term. Mr. Powell's decision making going forward will be strongly influenced by how he sees his legacy, how his chairmanship of the Federal Reserve will be recorded in history. Turning to the major stock indices, the DOW, SPX, QQQ and TSX have all put in tops and are pulling back from overbought conditions. The summer is a time of low volume. Time will tell if the old adage "sell in May and stay away until Labor Day" will play out this year. With respect to the Commitment of Traders report, the commercials decreased their net short positions in both gold and silver. The change in gold was very large. As well, the commercials increased their long positions while decreasing their shorts while still net short on the COMEX. See here and here and here. Disaggregated futures and options - combined report: cftc.gov Legacy Report: Futures Only Commodity Exchange Incorporated: cftc.gov