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Technology Stocks : Orckit (ORCT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tech fool who wrote (927)	2/24/1998 7:47:00 PM
From: savolainen	Respond to of 1998

[short/mid-term prospects] greetings tech fool >>Any thoughts on how crisis in Middle East could affect ORCTF's short-term prospects?<< not a clue (but not good), ...with recent news, hopefully things will settle down... even with that, without significant orctf news, think orctf price will drift until earnings pick-up in the second half of the year... Have you noticed that zack's consensus estimates for this quarter are back in the red -.02 (expected), but the year is .36 and next year .86? the relationships/contracts etc that could result in the acceleration of these numbers are probably for the most part already established altho not yet public knowledge... the question is when we (and the market in general) will find out anything... who knows? could be tomorrow, could be late summer... and probably such cards (release of news) can only be played when orctf's partners deem it in their interests... the big guys seem to positioning themselves and are in no hurry to tip their hands... Would put the news that could really pop stock price into three categories: partners, contracts, and milestones. Partners: don't think we've heard all the orctf/g.lite news... something seems like it might be up... related news may be a distribution partner.. also last conference call, Tamir mentioned that orctf was in discussions with "more systems vendors for partnerships outside the usa..." Again this may or may not be a big deal... but given the profiles of partners to date am inclined to think this might amount to something .... Contracts: am not holding my breath over the usa, which may take some time, but europe seems to moving right along... again from the last conference call: In europe this year Tamir is expecting tenders to run ".. a few thousand maybe up to 10,000" lines... if orctf can land one or more (and are allowed to announce them), such news would be significant... and then there is Bezeq (israel) which might also be around 10,000 lines... Milestones: Fujitsu Nexion: Nexion 8000 switch.. due next month (march)... maybe some fallout for orctf if on schedule and lives up to expectations... probably first piece of next generation fujtisu sonet/xdsl solution.. from fujitsu (japan) spring 97: "Nexion Acquisition Boosts Fujitsu's Capabilities In Booming Data Services Market Aiming to speed its move into new market segments focusing on powerful data services for business and high-speed Internet access, Fujitsu Network Communications, Inc. (FNC) of Richardson, Texas recently announced that it would acquire the business of Acton, Mass.-based Ascom Nexion, Inc. Nexion, incorporated in 1995, developed the NEXEN 8000, a new generation, high-performance switch that integrates multiple network services onto a single, unified network. The switch uses Asynchronous Transfer Mode technology to simultaneously carry business and Internet data, telephone calls and video efficiently and at extremely high speeds. FNC is the leading supplier of SONET fiber-optic transmission equipment and carrier-class core ATM switches to the regional Bell operating telephone companies. "The addition of Nexion's technology will allow Fujitsu to be the first to offer service providers the next generation of integrated SONET and ATM network solutions under a common management umbrella," said Ron Martin, FNC senior vice president of planning and development. "Combining ATM switching and SONET transport with narrowband and new high-speed access technologies will raise the competitive bar in the telecommunications industry." fujitsu.co.jp Harris/orctf vdsl silicon: .. results of long term collaboration (2 yrs) due q2... april-june... expect some sort of orchestrated pr campaign... from Harris among others (fujitsu/siemens/orctf)... fujitsu/orctf adsl silicon: for better or worse, a lot riding on this one... last press: available "mid 98"... june-aug? probably the key to orctf g.lite prospects... lots of unknowns, am playing this as long term to try to minimize risk... still think the schedule/performance of next generation silicon will be the key. fwiw s