Y2K STATE OF THE INDUSTRY MESSAGE - Electric Companies
From: rcowles@waterw.com (Rick Cowles)
Newsgroups: comp.software.year-2000
Subject: Y2K STATE OF THE INDUSTRY MESSAGE - Electric Companies
Date: Sun, 22 Feb 1998 18:42:28 GMT
Some of you might think I^Rve dropped off the face of the planet, as I
haven^Rt been posting much of late. Some of you might not have noticed or
don^Rt really care. Never the less, I thought I^Rd take a few minutes and
bring everyone up to speed on what I^Rve been up to with the electric
utility industry and Y2k since the beginning of the year. I^Rll also
summarize my overall impressions toward the end of this message.
I don^Rt know if it^Rs a valid indicator of electric industry panic or not,
but I^Rve spent more time in trains, planes, and automobiles since January
1st than most of my adult life. The first two months of this year have
been mostly spent with various electric company clients and industry
conferences, and I^Rm getting a pretty clear picture of where things stand
Y2k wise. The following is a generalization, but is at least 90 percent
accurate in where the industry stands.
Most electric companies are still, for the most part, in the awareness /
inventory stage of Y2k. Some are still fighting about how to conduct
inventory. There is very little upper management appreciation of the
depth of the Y2k issue. That lack of appreciation translates into a
significant deficit of executive level support (resources and funding) for
any Y2k projects. Y2k program managers are frustrated at their inability
to convince their local or executive management that Y2k is, indeed, an
enterprise threatening problem. There is a sense of urgency at the Y2k
program management level that is approaching panic, but the executive
support (resources and money) is still not materializing.
Executive management does not understand or appreciate their personal
exposure on this thing. That is the *only* parameter that will get their
attention - when they start to understand the personal legal implications
(as corporate officers), maybe the support will be forthcoming, however,
it^Rs all but too late for that understanding to make a significant impact
on any Y2k projects, not just the electric industry, even if that
enlightenment occurred today.
Not one electric company has started a serious remediation effort on its
embedded controls. Not one. Yes, there^Rs been some testing going on, and
a few pilot projects here and there, but for the most part it is still
business-as-usual, as if there were 97 months to go, not 97 weeks.
Almost all electric utility Y2k projects are severely understaffed. I was
at an independent generating company this week, which is responsible for
production of nearly 3000 megawatts between just two large generating
plants. This company *still* doesn^Rt have ONE (count^Rem, *1*) person
dedicated full time to Y2k, and this includes the project manager. This
is a $5 BILLION facility, and their management has committed only a few
hundred thousand dollars of ^Qseed money^R to the project. I sincerely feel
sympathy for the Y2k project manager.
One of the grid honchos at Bonneville Power Authority just ^Qkind of became
aware^R of the magnitude of the issue on the Western U.S. grid this week at
a conference I attended. This gentleman made an in-depth presentation of
the July and August, 1996 power outages that affected most of the western
U.S. and Canada at the beginning of the conference. By the end of the
conference, I believe, through his own presentation and that of other
companies talking about the embedded controls issues, he made the internal
connection between Y2k and these two large outages. By the end of the
conference, he understood how much this thing has the potential to impact
the Western U.S. power grid. The Western U.S. power grid is so fragile
it^Rs scary. If they lose the Palo Verde generating facilities (in
Arizona), for all intents and purposes, they lose the entire grid. Isn^Rt
that a great single-point failure?? But this guy has no more access to the
high levels of BPA (a government agency, for those who don^Rt know) than I
do.
And then, Business Week Magazine this past week...
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
"In particular, electric utilities are only now becoming aware that
programmable controllers--which have replaced mechanical relays in
virtually all electricity-generating plants and control rooms--may behave
badly or even freeze up when 2000 arrives. Many utilities are just getting
a handle on the problem. ''It's probably six months too soon for anyone to
try to guess the complete extent of the problem,'' says Charlie Siebenthal,
manager of the Year 2000 program at the Electric Power Research Institute,
the industry group that serves as an information clearinghouse. ''We don't
know'' if electricity flow will be affected, he said.
Nuclear power plants, of course, pose an especially worrisome problem.
While their basic safety systems should continue to work, other important
systems could malfunction because of the 2000 bug. In one Year 2000 test,
notes Jared S. Wermiel, who is leading the millennium bug effort at the
Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the security computer at a nuclear power
plant failed by opening vital areas that are normally locked. For that
reason, the NRC is in the process of issuing a letter requesting
confirmation from utilities that their plants will operate safely come Jan.
1, 2000. Given the complexity and the need to test, ''it wouldn't surprise
me if certain plants find that they are not Year 2000-ready and have to
shut down,'' says Wermeil."
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
"We don^Rt know." "It wouldn^Rt surprise me..."
The NRC confides that the plant security system at a nuclear power plant
failed "open" during testing. The primary research organization of the
industry "doesn^Rt know if electricity flow will be affected". THERE'S 18
MONTHS TO GO - ISN'T IT TIME SOMEONE FOUND OUT??? (Rhetorical question: is
there anyone still reading this newsgroup who does not believe that *every*
nuclear plant in the domestic U.S. stands a very good chance of being down
on 01/01/2000?)
I want to stress that it^Rs NOT the Y2k Program Managers (for the most part)
who are to blame for this sorry state of affairs. Unfortunately, when the
spit hits the fan, they will be the ^Qfall guys^R for this thing. If you are
personally in this position, I suggest that you do one of two things:
storm the CEO^Rs office tomorrow morning demanding support, or quit. One of
the two, but it^Rs a devil^Rs deal anyway you cut it. If you don^Rt do the
first, you are professionally dead. Jump the chain of command if you have
to. There is no time left to mince words on this or wait for a papal-type
audience two months from now. If you wait to kiss the CEO^Rs ring, you
might as well kiss your butt goodbye, and brush up on your unemployment
line techniques. You^Rre going to be professionally dead anyway, so you
might as well do your best to raise the CEO^Rs awareness level and cleanse
your own corporate soul.
So, there ya go. That^Rs where things stand now.
Oh, one other thing. Contingency planning? The industry hasn^Rt started
thinking about it yet. What makes anyone think that the industry will
seriously attack this issue prior to December, 1999?
Here^Rs my main message - the electric industry doesn^Rt have the time left
to lick this thing. It^Rs not that the resources or ability aren't there;
it^Rs that the corporate will and and executive level understanding of the
issue doesn^Rt seem to be there.
But *you* have the time to take some personal action. Don^Rt wait for the
industry to fess up to not being able to solve this in time. Get your own
personal contingencies in place, and then, start with your community. If
you^Rre reading this, you are part of the .0001% who truly appreciate the
magnitude of this problem. When the awareness level of John Q. Public
rises (as it surely will), I believe that you, having advanced knowledge of
the issue, have a moral obligation to take a leadership role in your
neighborhood or community regarding community preparedness.
My own personal strategy does not include heading for the hills; it
involves trying to keep my community together. To poorly paraphrase, "No
man is an island." That^Rs where I expect to be spending a majority of my
own personal time during most of 1999, as Pollyanna-ish as that may be.
And finally, for those of you who still think, "Oh, there^Rs two years left,
they^Rll get enough stuff fixed so at least a modicum of power can stay
on...", consider the following, which is my own personal take on how much
time remains to fix this:
678 days (as of 28 Feb, 1998).
- 30 (2 weeks vacation per year - 30 days between 1998 and 1999.)
- 24 (Holidays)
- 194 (Saturdays/Sundays)
- 60 (non-productive workdays; holiday seasons, 1998 and 1999)
.......
370
x .7 (productivity factor; accounts for sick days, personal time, meetings,
and non-productive work time)
.......
259 productive work days between now and 01/01/2000
When I roll these numbers out to electric company representatives, they go
pale and I can hear the sounds of knees knocking.
Any questions?
--
Rick Cowles (Public PGP key on request)
"Electric Utilities and Y2k"
euy2k.com |
