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Technology Stocks : AUTOHOME, Inc -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Roger Bass who wrote (1393)	2/19/1998 10:14:00 PM
From: ahhaha	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29970

Mostly in Wall Street it isn't what is actually going to occur, but what the shorts fear might occur. One of the computations I use is the possibly unwarranted assumption that this company will be a $100 billion company. In fact, given their positioning I can't see how they can fail to become the largest company to ever have stalked the earth, a veritable octopus bigger than ATT, GE, IBM put together and dictating international political policy. And all they are is a service company now. But they have a product --- a delivery model that uses the best confluence of efficient technology, and they are close to critical mass. By that I mean you join, you don't fight. That's why I thought the Road Runner merger was laughable. They don't need TWX. If TWX holds out, they'll lose all their customer base anyway and it doesn't matter what UMG or USW thinks they can do to prevent it. The merger just accelerates the inevitable. Down this line you have MSFT, CPQ, INTC, TXN, many experts, all fighting this juggernaut. You even have the MSOs (whatever that means) fighting against their own ATHM invested interest. It seems there is universal skepticism about cable modem and ATHM, The only believers are the uninformed public who love the service and company management. This incredible resistance is the most significant factor to use to evaluate this company. When the resistance breaks the combination of professional skepticism and the desire to serve the pent-up demand will make this company shares trade at biotech multiples. It won't make sense, but what does in Wall Street?(Maybe everything because it has one of the most free markets on the planet.)That was the point I was trying to make with my ridiculous and erroneous computation. With some companies you can't approach them with numbers. This is especially true with nascent ones. The best way is to evaluate the company based upon the buildup of puffery against the company and by other psychological factors. If you have the physics truth too, then you have a real screamer. As far as 50x, please tell me what AOL's multiple is. ATHM growth averaged at 50%/yr compounded = (1.5)^n for n years. In 15 years that would be (1.5)^15 = 438 times as large. Say 400. 400 x 60k subscribers = 24 million. Conservative. Obviously the company may grow at 300% per year next and several years following. Shorts would reward that with the biotech multiple (1300 is a little large). Lastly, every word I've written above will just generate scoffing and skepticism mostly from people who are followers and have no vision. All the poor people need to do is buy shares, ignore Wall Street punditry, and hold.