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To: REH who wrote (3089)2/19/1998 5:00:00 PM
From: Sam P.  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 93625
 
REH and all,
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Posted: 9:00 p.m. EST, 2/18/98
Price pressures slow DRAM transitions

By Anthony Cataldo

SAN JOSE, Calif. -- Surging sales of low-cost PCs coupled with the
financial hardships of Asian memory suppliers has extended the life of
16-Mbit DRAMs and will slow the transition to Direct Rambus DRAMs,
according to officials at Intel Corp. and to memory suppliers at the
Intel Developers Conference in San Jose, Calif. on Tuesday.

Micron Technology Inc. and Toshiba Corp. will likely shrink their
current 16-Mbit SDRAMs to reduce die size and boost yields, even as the
industry ramps up production of 64-Mbit devices. Micron, one of the few
companies to move its 16-Mbit production to an 0.25-micron process last
year, will probably shrink its 16-Mbit synhcronous design again to
reduce manufacturing costs, said Kevin Ryan, strategic applications
engineer for DRAM products at Micron Semiconductor Products Inc. (Boise,
Idaho).

Meanwhile, Toshiba said it will shrink its 16-Mbit synchronous devices
from 0.45-micron design rules to an 0.25-micron process that's used to
make the company's second-generation 64-Mbit SDRAM. The company is
undecided if it will reduce the die size any further, said Kevin
Kilbuck, technical marketing manager for Toshiba America Electronic
Components Inc. (Irvine, Calif.).

"We're going to have to decide what if anything to do after that with
the 16-Meg," Kilbuck said. "Some applications don't need the higher
density, such as low-end PCs or set-top boxes. But we get more bits per
wafer for the 64-Mbit part, and we think that most of the demand going
forward is for 64-Mbyte DIMMs [dual-in-line memory modules]."

Steven Przybylski, principal consultant with the Verdande Group, said
the financial turmoil among Asian chip companies will push out the
crossover from 16- to 64-Mbit DRAMs to the second half of 1998. "If it
wasn't for the Asia crisis we would have had a price crossover already,"
he said.

At the same time, aggressive cost reductions by DRAM companies have
pushed to 10 percent or more the relative die cost for the initial
64-Mbit Direct Rambus DRAMs compared to PC/100 SDRAMs, according to
Intel and Rambus Inc. officials. That price difference should fall to 5
percent by second half of 1999 when DRAM vendors start to ship 128-Mbit
Direct RDRAMs, said David Mooring, vice president and general manager of
the personal computing division at Rambus (Mountain View, Calif.).

Mooring said PC OEMs will still have a compelling reason to move to
64-Mbit Direct RDRAMs in 1999--when Intel plans to introduce a chip set
that supports the new architecture--because it will offer three-times
the bandwidth of SDRAMs. Rambus this week delivered its design for a
Direct RDRAM interface circuit to its 13 licensees. At least nine DRAM
companies have said they will begin sampling the device this year, some
as soon as next quarter.

To ease the DRAM transition, Intel confirmed that it will provide a
specification for a Rambus In-Line Memory Module (RIMM) that can be
populated with SDRAMs by using a $3 to $7 transceiver chip. "This is not
an interim solution on the way to Rambus, this is a way to accelerate
the transition to the RIMM socket on a PC," said Pete MacWilliams, an
Intel Fellow and the director of platform architecture for Intel's
Architecture Labs. "We hope to limit the number of different
motherboards needed for the PC," he said.

Intel also acknowledged that it is discussing the possibility of
including a 133-MHz SDRAM specification into its road map, but that it
was undecided on whether it would do so. But the company said there was
no place in its road map for either double-data rate SDRAMs or SL-DRAMs.

"In the last six months, we've seen DRAM pressure continue and forces
leading to instability in the DRAM community," MacWilliams said to a
gathering of developers. "All this leads to an uncertainty. It also
means transitions are more difficult, and being able to invest in new
capital becomes difficult.

"In the last six months, Intel has taken some steps in the sub-$1,000
market," MacWilliams continued. "What we're going to find is that older
technologies will last longer. These new challenges are going to result
in some fine tuning and tweaking in how we implement our road map, but
there's no fundamental change."

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