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Strategies & Market Trends : Trader J's Inner Circle -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Trader J who wrote (56388)	8/6/2024 10:20:17 AM
From: Trader J	Respond to of 56532

Market Thoughts: 8/6 - Yesterday played out about as expected into the close though I was hoping for a bit more upside momentum into it. I was hoping we'd close with something less than a 2% close. It was a tall order as that type of action is very tough to purchase into at the close, rather than retrenching to cash and safe positions rather than risking overnight action. Japan settled and rallied overnight. Cooler heads seemed to prevail on the recession-soft landing discussion and we had a bit more parity as markets opened. What I was looking for this AM was just what we got, a slightly positive open, decent volume and some push-pull back to flatness. In fact, if I could have had a gap, it would have been to the downside but I didn't want to see a big gap up which would have been sold off in my estimation, causing more consternation and lack of confidence. I wanted to see the Nasdaq go flat and then my hope is that we can establish the recent weakness as a point of some support with a mindful slow rally off recent rhetoric/weakness. We've had a very nice revaluation of late in a few of the recent market narratives, especially AI. As long as we don't sell off hard with volume, the water is much more comfortable to start taking some new small trades as it trades out. I'm still expecting volatility but hoping we don't see a large program downside trade that starts a new wave of momentum. The market psychology will still be very fragile and erasing gains with downside volume could cause another material % drop in short order. I don't want to keep spamming the thread with my favorite plays and those were mentioned numerous times yesterday. There's also no reason to rush into names. The materiality of the last few days of action dictates that it won't be isolated events and there's still lack of confidence out there. Analysts who were flat have every reason to keep talking down the markets as they put cash to work into selected names. For Main street like us, we have to snipe, not net, the fish. Be very specific, targeted and prudent. Keep new or added positions small and use time to your advantage to smooth average position cost. If you're a new investor or trader, this is where your diversification, position weighting and pragmatism come into play. These three tenets help establish balance and trust in your portfolio. If you allow any of those three items to be removed, you now have a two legged stool, and keeping up the balancing act can't be done for long before the reality of the situation takes its toll. Today, I'm rooting for a nice orderly rise off our AM base into an S&P and Nasdaq up 1% or so. A snap back trade of specific bellwether names like NVDA finishing up 3x that would be perfectly fine toward creating more confidence. Sure seems like "confidence" is the word of the day from this post and I think it applies. Good luck out there all. TJ