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Technology Stocks : C-Cube -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Rieman who wrote (29697)	2/19/1998 6:53:00 PM
From: blankmind	Respond to of 50808

from the asnd thread first call earnings estimates: To: Gary Korn (35463 ) From: Glenn D. Rudolph Thursday, Feb 19 1998 5:17PM EST Reply # of 35473 FIRST CALL EARNINGS ESTIMATES CUBE C-Cube Microsystems Inc. 02/16/98 Industry: Semiconductr SIC: 3577 Latest Price: $22.00 1998 P/E: 20.0 Analyst Recommendation: 2.0 QTR QTR FY FY Mar 98 Jun 98 Dec 98 Dec 99 --- --- -- -- CURRENT MEAN EPS 0.27 0.24 1.10 1.31 Number of Brokers 6 6 6 3 Median 0.27 0.24 1.10 1.26 Standard Deviation 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.08 Current High 0.31 0.26 1.12 1.42 Current Low 0.23 0.22 1.08 1.25 Year Ago EPS 0.41A 0.20A 1.15A 1.10 Current vs. Year Ago Change -34% 20% -4% 19% Report Date wk/Apr 16 wk/Jul 17 wk/Jan 22 - EARNINGS ESTIMATE REVISION MOMENTUM Up Revisions last 7 days 1 1 0 0 Up Revisions last 30 days 1 0 0 0 Down Revisions last 7 days 0 0 0 0 Down Revisions last 30 days 4 4 5 2 EARNINGS ESTIMATES CONSENSUS TRENDS Current Mean 0.27 0.24 1.10 1.31 7-days ago Mean 0.26 0.23 1.10 1.31 30-days ago Mean 0.29 0.28 1.25 1.58 60-days ago Mean 0.30 0.29 1.26 1.68 90-days ago Mean 0.30 0.29 1.27 1.68 COMPARATIVE ESTIMATES AND TRENDS Industry - Semiconduct 27.63 28.71 123.19 156.85 Current vs. Year Ago Change -13% -6% 1% 27% Sector - TECHNOLOGY 8.62 10.19 42.27 54.29 Current vs. Year Ago Change 4% 11% 18% 28% WSJ/DJ US Index 10.52 11.83 47.89 52.94 Current vs. Year Ago Change 6% 10% 12% 11% Ratios Relative To: Company Industry Sector WSJ/DJ P/E on 1998 Cal Yr Mean 20.0 23.10 23.68 20.17 PEG on 1998 Cal Yr Mean 0.57 1.17 1.34 1.63 RECOMMENDATION AND GROWTH RATES RECOMMENDATIONS LONG TERM GROWTH RATES Current Mean 2.0 Next 5 yrs - Median 35% Number of Brokers 4 Number of Brokers 1 Industry Recommendation: 2.2 Industry Growth Rate: 20% 7-days ago Mean 2.0 Next 5 yrs - High 35% 30-days ago Mean 2.0 Next 5 yrs - Low 35% 60-days ago Mean 1.8 Last 5 Years 145% 90-days ago Mean 1.8 Diff. from Industry +0.2 Rel. to Industry 1.8 Diff. from Sector +0.0 Rel. to Sector 2.0 Diff. from WSJ/DJ US +0.2 Rel. to WSJ/DJ US 2.8 Transmitted: 2/17/98 3:32 PM (E_CUBE)

To: John Rieman who wrote (29697)	2/22/1998 2:58:00 PM
From: J.S.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50808

John, I take it the increase in EPS is due largely to lower tax rate. How do you figure they can sell 4.2M units for VCD. Is $94M based on this figure? Also why are you so sure that Divicom won't see increased revenues. It appears they are very busy making inroads with the RBOC's and foreign counterparts. Thanks for the estimate, Joe Q1 and Q2 earnings concerns...................... VCD ASPs were about $12 in Q4, 1997, they will drop to around $10 in Q1. C-Cube needs to sell 4.2M units this Q to break even. Last Q was around 3.5M units. The last two years, we have seen a nasty drop in demand that starts in March or late April. If demand runs through the end of March this year, C-Cube can do 4.2M units, if not, VCD revenues decline. They almost certainly will in Q2. Divicom's headend business is flat this Q. Settop boxes won't add in Q1. No Kirch sales. DVD revenues should be up, maybe double over Q4. Add $4M. DVx is replacing older encoder chip sales. DVx is much cheaper. It will take a 50% increase in units to make up for the lower prices. Not happening this Q. A decrease in encoder chip revenues. Gross margins will increase from 53% to over 54% this Q, and spending is still constrained. This should add a little to ESP. C-Cube's tax rate is moving down from 34% to 30% this year, don't expect it all in one Q. A 30% tax rate would have added $.05 per share more earning in 1997. All-in-all, I see $92M to $94 in revenues in Q1, if VCD runs out the Q.