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Technology Stocks : Stock Swap -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Judy who wrote (12224)	2/19/1998 5:53:00 PM
From: Andrew Vance	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 17305

AV--Not to bud in Judy, but I am the resident semiconductor equipment and technology BULL (as in BULLish but with some qualified BULLs... as well<GG>). My position has been to ride the roller coaster on many of the stocks you are talking about. I also have a nasty habit of missing the absolute lows, buying down to average down shares, and selling before the absolute highs. I miss the peaks and valleys but I play real well on the mid ground. With the exception of the DD sector, I am confident that we have some upside to the tech sector. Look at the SOX today. It is still well off from its highs of last year even though the DOW is at record levels along with the NASDAQ. The stocks in the SOX (sounds like the Cat in the Hat) have done real well recently. Take a closer look at the ones that make up this index and you will find the likes of IDTI and ADI, to name a few. When the techs run they look like they run better with the SOX. The upside and downside to the sector are reflected in the SOX real well for me. These are the first to be bought in a run up and possibly first in a downturn. The peripheral companies outside of the SOX generate some interesting volatility at times. As an Engineer, I have a good read on the technology and what will be required by this sector. My only problems sometimes is the timing but I am able to recover due to my staying power. I started to go to cash a week or so ago and took some very nice profits that were 2 months or less old. Over the last few days, I have been using the cash to establish some new positions and add to others. I think we have more positive momentum going for us in the short term. I also believe that tomorrow and Monday may not be positive market days. However, it will all even out within the next few weeks. More and more we are becoming very aware of the REAL issues in Asian and what they can and cannot afford to do relative to the IC industry. Today is a good example. Hyundai, in desperate need of funds and funding for operations, is going to sell off Symbios Logic to ADPT, pending anti trust approval (SCSI related) to generate capital to expand in their Oregon Facility and elsewhere. INTC is going ahead with its Hillsboro facility and the MOT/Siemens venture is on track. While Japan is still an unknown, it is clear they need to keep pace with the rest of the world. North America and Europe is picking up and may make up a majority of the slack PERCEIVED to have been created by the Asisan Crisis. If the Symbios Sale goes through, Hyundai, who is mentioned almost by everyone as part of the slowdown, will have the wherewithall to more forward. 1998 might be a down year for the sector but it will cause a real positive crunch next year to regain parity or make up for lost time. Again, this is timing. The enabling technologies I speak of, on occasion, cannot be stifled by any crisis. These technologies are critical to future survival and device capabilities. They will move on. I see the worst mistake made is an ill timed investment resulting in a 6-9 frozen asset situation before the recovery. But not to be positioned and ready for the train to leave the station is inappropriate, IMO. When the recovery occurs, these stocks will reach new historic highs and then some, again. I do not want to miss the ride. Look at DELL, MSFT and LU. Yet another split for DELL and MSFT. Business is good for them and it trickles down to the need for more ICs and for more advanced ICs. We are on the threshold over another microelectronic boom time with telecommunications, graphics/sound, and storage. The sector is just slightly out of sorts and will correct itself. I volunteer time at the local Jr High School these days for Junior Achievement and their Project Business class. As part of the class, we discussed stocks. I ran 2 sets of comparative graphs off the tip of my brain and overlayed them for the kids to make a point. I might have been lucky in my choices of the non tech sector stocks even though they were chosen at random. Graph 1 = Anhusuer Busch, Dsiney, Coca Cola, and United Airlines. Graph 2 = Dell, Intel, Microsoft, ASM Lithography Run the graphs yourself. It blew my mind. Going back 40 months, BUD is down 8% while UAL was the winner for the group, under 200% gain. Group 2 was phenomenal with DELL up close to 2000% and MSFT at 300% or better. I think that you will find that over the course of a few years, the tech sector has knocked the socks off the DOW stocks. The down side is minimal since all the companies have been eviscerated (hold time is the only downside unless you factor in missed oppportunities elsewhere) while the upside is tremendous. Don't load up in the tech sector on my say so but at least have a comfortable position to benefit from any good rally. BTW-if the charts are correct (and my portfolio seems to agree), a $1000 investment in DELL 40 months ago would be worth $20,000 today. Not bad at all. I also agree with you that any retracement will be slight and possibly short lived. Andrew