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To: Gary Korn who wrote (35465)2/19/1998 5:13:00 PM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph  Respond to of 61433
 
FIRST CALL EARNINGS ESTIMATES

CIEN Ciena Corp. 02/16/98
Industry: Com-wo AT&T SIC: 3661
Latest Price: $55.94 1998 P/E: 37.8
Analyst Recommendation: 1.1

QTR QTR FY FY
Jan 98 Apr 98 Oct 98 Oct 99
--- --- -- --
CURRENT MEAN EPS 0.35 0.36 1.48 1.77
Number of Brokers 8 8 8 6

Median 0.35 0.36 1.48 1.75
Standard Deviation 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.04
Current High 0.36 0.37 1.51 1.85
Current Low 0.34 0.36 1.45 1.71

Year Ago EPS 0.13A 0.26A 1.09A 1.48
Current vs. Year Ago Change 169% 38% 36% 20%
Report Date Feb 19 wk/May 17 wk/Dec 10 -

EARNINGS ESTIMATE REVISION MOMENTUM

Up Revisions last 7 days 0 0 0 0
Up Revisions last 30 days 0 1 1 0
Down Revisions last 7 days 1 0 0 0
Down Revisions last 30 days 1 0 0 0

EARNINGS ESTIMATES CONSENSUS TRENDS

Current Mean 0.35 0.36 1.48 1.77
7-days ago Mean 0.35 0.36 1.48 1.77
30-days ago Mean 0.35 0.36 1.47 1.74
60-days ago Mean 0.35 0.36 1.48 1.75
90-days ago Mean 0.30 0.31 1.28 1.60

COMPARATIVE ESTIMATES AND TRENDS

Industry - Com-wo AT&T 15.58 8.00 47.46 61.64
Current vs. Year Ago Change 18% 2% 15% 30%

Sector - TECHNOLOGY 10.60 8.62 39.84 50.56
Current vs. Year Ago Change 13% 4% 15% 27%

WSJ/DJ US Index 11.25 10.52 45.93 51.73
Current vs. Year Ago Change 10% 6% 10% 13%

Ratios Relative To: Company Industry Sector WSJ/DJ

P/E on 1998 Cal Yr Mean 36.3 28.25 23.68 20.17
PEG on 1998 Cal Yr Mean 0.70 1.20 1.34 1.63

RECOMMENDATION AND GROWTH RATES

RECOMMENDATIONS LONG TERM GROWTH RATES

Current Mean 1.1 Next 5 yrs - Median 52%
Number of Brokers 7 Number of Brokers 2
Industry Recommendation: 2.0 Industry Growth Rate: 24%

7-days ago Mean 1.1 Next 5 yrs - High 60%
30-days ago Mean 1.1 Next 5 yrs - Low 45%
60-days ago Mean 1.0 Last 5 Years NM
90-days ago Mean 1.0

Diff. from Industry +0.9 Rel. to Industry 2.2
Diff. from Sector +0.9 Rel. to Sector 3.0
Diff. from WSJ/DJ US +1.1 Rel. to WSJ/DJ US 4.2

Transmitted: 2/17/98 3:56 PM (E_CIEN)