Russia's stupid choice to wage war on its neighbors... is not going well for Russia.
It's not going all that well for anyone else either... as tends to be generally true in war... only more when you are forced into war.
The costs are... as you'd expect... disputed. Wikipedia encapsulates it fairly well:
Casualties of the Russo-Ukrainian War
I generally agree with the included quote:
In July 2024, Chief of the General Staff of the British Army Sir Roland Walker said that with the current way of fighting, it would take Russia five years to control the four regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia that Russia claims as its own, and it would cost Russia from 1.5 to 1.8 million casualties. [112] He said there are "no winners" in Russia's invasion of Ukraine, adding that "it is an utter devastation for both sides and lost generations." [113]
Pointless to quibble over the numbers... but I'd agree that Russian control over domestic media and Putin's self interest converge in fostering systemic understatement of Russian losses. The resulting understatement is likely more significant than the Russians themselves intend or expect in their internal reporting... the military not keeping track too closely, at each level deliberately understating what they do know, and then downplaying that again in what they report... with those reports themselves then likely to be further reduced with each subsequent handoff as they aggregate up the chain. And, that's not a thing unique to only the function of Russian totalitarian systems ?
It's probably close to about right... that half a million Russians have died for no reason other than Putin's ego being excessive relative to reason... with his Napoleon Complex issues unfortunately linking up with "the usual" in Russians assuming they have a unique right to "security" based in threatening, bullying, attacking and killing their neighbors. The neighbors have grown tired of it... and Russia, in its current, deeply corrupt, and hugely weakened state under Putin's leadership... is no longer able to pull off a convincing bluff...
It's not like Ukraine has been a particularly capable military adversary... ? But, the ignorance and excess in hubris that led Russia to spectacularly miscalculate its probabilities of success... have not been corrected. The weakness of Russia is on full display... not due to western support or sanctions, etc., but exacerbated by the inherent weakness of (and poor decisions by) their corrupted system of "leadership"... with all of that intrinsic error amplified by Putin's own personal brand of ignorance and myopia...
Incompetent leadership... delivers incompetent results... and grows the incompetence under failure... as we see occurring in Russia, now.
Putin is not a great leader... and the fact the Russian military are broadly incompetent... and unable to recognize the fact (much less correct for it) even when forced to see it in the results... is both a reflection of Russia's feudalistic systemic corruption... and a product of a failed leadership unable to recognize its own weakness... or fix it. That's not particularly unique in the world, currently... rather than typical of incentives in any leadership unwilling to be displaced... and "forced to" fight internally for its own survival... in spite of its failings. Some sorts of failures matter more, to them, than others ? As I've noted often enough... we're at a low point in history... as is consistent with being at a low point in the quality of global leadership... given meritocracy broadly forced to submit to the deliberate corruption of the lowest common denominator...
Democracy... is not a solution to the problem of corruption... or a substitute for cohesion in civil society, that must be based on shared interests, tolerance, and trust, with trust necessarily based on good faith... and that, ultimately, enabling advancement based in recognition of and promotion of merit ? As a civilization, we're going backwards in those terms... with all the competing factions engaged in a race to the bottom... which results in "failure is the only option". All that leaves us with... is choices in the failure modes... and hoping for luck delivering devolution in failures occurring faster then corruption can extend its reach...
Putin... has Russia 1/3 of the way to vying with Cambodia's Pol Pot for inflicting death on his own people...
But, if "the good news" is that that result still has him competing in the minor leagues... the bad news is... that he's not done, yet... so that 500,000 out of 147 million... doesn't define any limit.
In the back and forth of the propaganda wars... both sides repeatedly claim the other side is already at and exceeding limits in their ability to sustain the fight with the numbers in the forces required to sustain their war efforts...
From what I can see, that is untrue of both sides "in fact"... but true of both sides only in the narrowly defined terms of sustaining and expanding war efforts from here, requiring "crossing lines" into fostering "more"... when both sides would subject (themselves and) their societies to greater risk and greater stress by taking "more"... Russia has more to draw from... which (for many reasons) doesn't scale or translate into linear advantages... rather than linear costs... but (Russian leadership) likely has lesser ability to afford the costs...
I wrote (in September last year) "There's no path to victory, for Russia, through escalation"... which has, thus far, proven true... There has been Russian escalation... There has not been any victory...
Your (oddly belated) "comeback"... "So you wrote but you appear to be wrong. Russia is doing very well"... appears par for the course in your diametrically opposite of reality and delusional view of the world...
The only meaningful shift I see occurring recently... is in Ukraine recently opting to obviate some of its own self imposed limits... that have handicapped its efforts before now... and now apparently do not.
And, the rest of what I wrote then, almost a year ago, appears only more obviously true today... with only one obvious exception that requires some partial adjustment:
"It's still obvious fact that RUSSIA invaded Ukraine... NOT the other way around"... is no longer nearly as absolutely true as it was then...
Otherwise... the history doesn't change... The war we have is a dual product of the incompetence of leaders on all sides... those who wanted the war... and those who didn't...
It is perhaps one of the stupidest wars ever fought... as having no reason to be fought... other than in the competing ignorance, self interest... hubris... and cowardice... of failed "leaders" on all sides...
The cowardice of western leaders... in "standing up to Russia / Putin" through covert action in Ukraine prior to 2022... rather than through overtly addressing the problems... including Russia's own prior covert efforts in Ukraine... isn't thus anything that enables excusing Russia's gross error in attacking its neighbor...
Western cowardice or miscalculation in covert plans... "inducing Putin to attack"... doesn't make the West responsible for Putin's stupidity in actually attacking ?
Trump is likely correct... that if he were President we probably wouldn't have this war... because Putin probably wouldn't have decided it made any sense to attack... and Trump wouldn't have thought it useful to "induce him" to ?
That doesn't translate, today, into an ability to "undo" the war... and just "declare peace"...
Nor does anyone have any rightful ability to tell Ukraine to "submit" or "surrender" anything to Russia ?
But, it will require strong leadership to end the war and achieve peace... and, as was true a year ago, and is still true for now... there is none... So, the war will drag on... either to be decided on the battlefield... or to await the change that enables new leadership emerging to change the reality...
What we're stuck with, for now, it seems... is a collection of capable enough as very well armed technocrats and, in leadership... cowards... and self dealing, incompetent, delusional, paranoid politicians and pseudo-monarchs...
It's not my war... I'm still against it... as "stupid" and "pointless"... and an obvious failure of leadership.
As a supporter of the aggressors... it is your war...
And... its not going well for Russia... as should be clear... given the war is now being fought inside Russia... instead of only inside Ukraine ? Trying to spin that as a "win"... seems a bit too much... even for you ?
But... it is what it is now... Being against it doesn't make it go away... Being a cheerleader for the aggressors... does nothing to change the facts on the ground... or alter the shifts in trends occurring ?
There isn't any utility or a point in being deliberately blind to the reality... either in the origins... or the fact of it in where events have led us up until today...
Yours is still... mindless and pointless...
Maybe I'll check back in another year and we'll see how things change... as they are certain to ? |
