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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tim Bagwell who wrote (3529)	2/19/1998 9:28:00 PM
From: Mr. BSL	Respond to of 42834

<model> Tim, I believe that Bob has stated that the sentiment component involves two parts - Bull,Bear ratios and mutual fund cash levels. duke60

To: Tim Bagwell who wrote (3529)	2/19/1998 9:48:00 PM
From: Alan Bell	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

The other two indicators in his model are economic and valuation. While his model may very well be inherently quantitative, there are clearly subjective aspects. In the second half of '96, BB realized that a large amount of corporate stock buybacks were occurring. This meant that earnings numbers were not fully reflective and the valuation of the market was better than it appeared. More recently, he made the correct call on Asia's impact on our market and this had a large effect on his bullish stance. I suspect that this was also a subjective evaluation. -- Alan

To: Tim Bagwell who wrote (3529)	2/19/1998 11:08:00 PM
From: mister topes	Respond to of 42834

Brinker has given his model guidelines often on Moneytalk. These include: Economic Cycle Monetary Policy Valuation Sentiment This model has been 100% invested since Dow 2300 in October 1990 and has also called major buying opportunities at Dow 2850, Dow 3600, Dow 5400, Dow 6600 and Dow 7500 on the way up. The model also called for a huge rally by February and here it is!

To: Tim Bagwell who wrote (3529)	2/20/1998 10:31:00 PM
From: Rock Fish	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 42834

>Maybe we can piece together a few things about Bob's model. >We know there are four components and we know that they >are weighted nearly equally. Extremely doubtful. The variables involved are part of a partial differential equation. First, you would need to figure out what form of partial differential equation his model takes (you might get close by reading the literature). Then you would need to figure out the coefficients. Once you figure all this stuff out, you would need to either hire a team of economists/accountants, or pay some other source to calculate all of the inputs. That is: not only accurate estimates of all four parameters, but the partial differentials of all these parameters, which are even harder to estimate. GOOD LUCK. A good/accurate economic model takes very well trained ecomomists/mathematicians to derive, and very well trained economists/accountants to supply the inputs. This is what Bob does for a living, and he's very good at it. Don't expect a non-professional to duplicate, or even understand it. -- Rock Fish