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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JHR who wrote (12208)	2/20/1998 12:22:00 AM
From: JZGalt	Respond to of 95453

The TDW curse is BS. If you read the newspaper clipping they said there _might_ be a problem _if_ smaller companies overproduce supply ships _and_ there is a slowdown in the drilling in the GOM. If you have time listen to TMAR conference call at 888-888-9538. Everything coming out of drydock is already booked and at higher rates than when they went into drydock. Rates overall are dropping since they are getting more long term contracts vs. 1-30 day jobs. If TMAR doesn't get any rate increases, floats no more ships, and gets only the increase in utilization that comes from extensive drydocking in 1997 and ending in the first quarter of 1998, then you should get $2.50 or so in earnings which is still a nice enough gain. I agree these stocks are cheap, but TMAR is being priced like it is going to see a severe downturn in the GOM. ---- Dave

To: JHR who wrote (12208)	2/20/1998 3:59:00 AM
From: Jack Be Quick	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

JHR- (re:TMAR)>>The problem it has right now is that its in boats and since TDW, the biggest inthe boat side of the business, came out and said they were seeing a weakening in their day rates all the boat cos have tanked.<< Don't mean to be quarrelsome, but I believe that this statement is incorrect. In their latest earnings report (fabulous earnings, btw), TDW in fact reported that their dayrates were continuing to increase. They made a cautionary statement about what might happen to the market in the GOM (one specific market, and TMAR, which was the original subject , has diverse international operations) IF a speculative number of additional vessels were to come online in the GOM in the second half of the year. It has NOT happened yet, and if and when it should ever happen, the extent of its effects, if any, are not yet known. (In the interest of full disclosure, I'll say that I think that the entire issue is a load of crap, but that's just my opinion.) However, you are certainly correct that there is is a widely held belief that boat rates are falling, or some such thing, despite a constant stream of earnings reports to the contrary. Also, for reasons unknown to me, boats do not seem to get any respect here in the oilpatch. On an undervalued stock thread, I'd expect TDW, HMAR, TMAR, and CKH to get a better reception. Regards, John