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Technology Stocks : TAVA Technologies (TAVA-NASDAQ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Richard S. Schoenstadt who wrote (11769)2/20/1998 4:18:00 AM
From: GoodQ  Respond to of 31646
 
To emphsis on staffing numbers for the investment community is misleading. Only some people on this thread goes into the numbers(CD and staffing) like its magic and will tell them a lot. Unfortunatlely, it is not true. In both cases, an estimated overall number is important because it gives one some idea of the scope. However those numbers DOES NOT really tell impact to company profit.

For example, staffing number to profit is really not arithmetic like: i.e. 4 people at 8 hours a day at $100/h gives the company income of $3200.
Those numbers are more like algerba, first, there are different types of people: i.e. x=engineer, y=manager, z=marketing, t=administrative. Profits are based on billable hours.
No need to talk about the engineers(they don't always work 8 hours-could be less or double), but for example, let say a manager who is not a project leader will not contribute income from plant fix contract. He may however in six months, orchstrate a takeover of another firm and increase the total staffing/income 100%. also no need to go into how marketing staff can generate business which is not necessary linear. Therefore knowing the numbers is important because it does give one some idea but the ACTUAL number is not important. More importantly is the trend/direction with time.

For me, the important statements from TAVA in this regard are as follows:

1. We stress risk management and estimate full staffing to be XXX by 2000. --- this means management is looking out for not over hire for business after 2000 and not let the spike of Y2K business drive the company's direction.

2. We are looking at different means to address the staffing requirement issues including partnering with other firms. --- This means handling any Y2K efforts adequately including outsourcing the bodies but keep the knowledge, database, etc. in house.

3. Can not project new hire estimates for the future. But have not experienced any difficulty hiring what we need in the past. We(TAVA) will hire whatever is needed as new contracts are awarded --- This is important, because the approach is good. Sign a contract, use first what you have that you can spare, than hire what you need.

Similarly with the CDs, except the actual cost of the CD which is peanuts, a CD may generate a new contract of $_____ amount. (you fill it out). My interest is more on what contract they get and the rate of growth in margins/incomes, not the actual number of CDs.

I expect the stock price will stay between 8-10 for a while until 3rd Q news. Many people who got in at 5 and below who don't have the long term perspective will sell which means a supply. Demand will come in from new investors and some of us who will buy more when price is right. I maintain a core holding for long term(1+ year) and trade a small portion as price goes up and down. My trouble is that I am bad in timing and TAVA is one company that can jump any day and never come back or it can act like the past and trades in a range for a while.
Could not sleep tonight, and feel I should contribute a little to this thread. GQ