Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bull_dozer who wrote (207685)	9/7/2024 12:01:03 AM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 219931

Re <<THE FCKING FCK>> We like this below …

To: bull_dozer who wrote (207685)	9/7/2024 1:39:05 AM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 219931

re <<*THE FCKING FCK>> ... unclear how much $ the pretendo- / pseudo- commies are making off the pseudo- / pretendo-capitalists of EU and NAmerica but might be plenty more than one might suspect but unclear why US economists should be concerned as long as US$ still good-enough for payment settling macrotrends.net. bloomberg.com China Should Explain ‘Enormous’ Data Gaps, US Ex-Official Says* Discrepancies may obscure true size of China’s trade surplus US called for explanation as China boosts exports for growth 6 September 2024 at 10:04 GMT+8 China should explain widening discrepancies in its balance of payments data that are obscuring growing global imbalances, a top US economist said. The country’s surplus in goods trade shown in the BoP data — compiled by its State Administration of Foreign Exchange — has significantly undershot the one reported by the customs since 2022, according to Brad Setser, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and a former US trade and Treasury official. “These are enormous gaps that call into question some of the adjustments that China is making to that data,” Setser said on the sidelines of the Bund Summit in Shanghai on Thursday. The gap is contentious as countries seek to gauge the true size of China’s trade surplus as they accuse Beijing of unfairly subsidizing exports to drive growth. The US Treasury in June called forclarifications from Beijing on the difference. China's Trade Balance Data Divergence Grows Trade surplus in SAFE data much smaller than customs data since 2021 Source: China's General Administration of Customs, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Bloomberg Data released last month showed that anomaly in the measurement of the trade surplus continued to grow, hitting a record $87 billion in the second quarter and taking it to almost $150 billion for the first half of the year. Other puzzles include the rising deficit in China’s investment income even as interest rates have risen, according to Setser. He argued in a recent report that China looked to be undercounting its income from its trillions of dollars in overseas assets. Taken together, Setser estimates that China’s external surplus is closer to $700 billion, more than double the reported current account surplus of $253 billion last year. The US Treasury previously estimated the trade surplus discrepancy was equivalent to more than 1% of China’s gross domestic product in 2023. The SAFE has attributed the goods surplus gap to the rise of “factoryless manufacturing,” whereby global companies outsource goods production to Chinese firms in special free trade zones. This could lead to a deficit in the SAFE’s figures but not in customs’ because the former cover transactions between Chinese and foreign companies, while the latter is based on physical movement of goods across borders, according to the International Monetary Fund. This may largely explain the divergence based on information provided by the authorities, the Fund said in an August report. But such a change in methodology should also entail corresponding adjustments in other parts of the BoP data, such as the multinationals’ profits generated in China. That hasn’t happened, Setser said. Setser said SAFE should disclose more details of the statistical adjustments it’s made with numerical examples to illustrate why the data series diverged. The regulator should also provide a more detailed breakdown on the balance of investment income on foreign direct investment, bonds and bank loans, he said.

To: bull_dozer who wrote (207685)	9/7/2024 1:46:48 AM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 219931

Re << *THE FCKING FCK>> BTW, shared breakfast this morning with a new acquaintance, an ex-goldman trader, and fwiw, which might be not very much, but he has been since 2021 and is still accumulation gold. He is hesitating on oil. zerohedge.com Goldman Going For Gold* BY THE MARKET EAR TUESDAY, SEP 03, 2024 - 18:11 Waiting for the break-out Gold has continued moving higher, but the pace is not overly impressive. This looks like a rising wedge, something you see when strong trends start to fade. Let's see how this plays out, but gold bulls must see the metal climb above the upper trend line rather soon. Source: Refinitiv Goldman goes for Gold "In this softer cyclical environment, gold stands out as the commodity where we have the highest confidence in near-term upside. More specifically, we maintain our bullish $2,700/toz target for early 2025 and we open a long gold trading recommendation for three reasons: 1. We believe that the tripling in central bank purchases since mid-2022 on fears about US financial sanctions and US sovereign debt is structural and will continue, reported or unreported. 2. Imminent Fed rate cuts are poised to bring Western capital back into the gold market, a component largely absent of the sharp gold rally observed in the last two years. 3. Gold offers significant hedging value to portfolios against geopolitical shocks including tariffs, Fed subordination risk, and debt fears." (Goldman Sachs) 15% upside "Our analysis suggests an upside of 15% in gold prices under a hypothetical rise in financial sanctions equal to the rise seen since 2021 and a similar upside if US CDS spreads widen by 1 standard deviation (13bps) amid rising debt concerns." (Goldman) Central Bank buying Goldman continued: "We see value in long Gold positions given higher Central Bank demand and hedging value against geopolitical/financial shocks (sanctions, debt fears, tariffs, Fed subordination risk)" Source: Goldman Source: Goldman Not what gold volatility does Strong upside momentum in gold is usually accompanied with gold volatility moving higher (gold trades with an upside skew). We have seen the inverse lately, gold volatility moving substantially lower. One way to play Goldman's bullish gold logic is using relatively cheap uspide calls. Source: Refinitiv Gold longs - look at options Beware the "warning signal" from the options market. Goldman's Quinn writes: "In late October, when skew traded near its current mark, spot Gold was ~$1900". Source: GS derivs

To: bull_dozer who wrote (207685)	9/7/2024 3:00:41 AM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 219931

re <<*THE FCKING FCK>> btw, suspect Bloomberg once again re- re- re- rehashing balderdash as Team China running trade surplus hands over more hands Message 34813026 , not buying Euro and US bonds and never mind stocks and real estate, certainly accumulating strategic stockpiles of all sorts, and yeah, not-buying gold bloomberg.com China’s PBOC Keeps Gold Buying on Hold as Prices Reach Record* By Sybilla Gross 7 September 2024 at 10:18 GMT+8 China’s central bank did not add any gold to its reserves for a fourth straight month in August as prices for the precious metal rose to a record. Bullion held by the People’s Bank of China was unchanged at 72.8 million troy ounces at the end of last month, according to official data released on Saturday. The PBOC had added to its stockpiles for 18 consecutive months up to April this year, helping to underpin the strength in bullion prices. The halt in buying by the PBOC adds to signs that soaring prices are crimping global central bank demand, after strong purchases in the first half. Still, several analysts see central bank buying remaining a key driver for bullion this year. Bullion — up more than 20% this year — rose to its highest ever in August as traders ramped up bets on monetary easing from the Federal Reserve. While the lofty prices have recently hurt retail sales of discretionary items like jewelry in China, gold bars and coins are increasingly popular as investors seek to safeguard their wealth from weak economy. — With assistance from Ying Tian