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To: Bonnie Bear who wrote (14341)	2/20/1998 1:27:00 AM
From: bobby beara	Respond to of 18056

Yo BB, Hard assets. The dollars real purchasing power saw a mighty turn when the 64 Kennedy half dollar which was 90% silver, turned into a clad 40% silver shadow of it's former self in 1965 (coincidently the peak of the nifty market he he). Ahh the good ole days, when a single income could run a whole household and the average working man didn't have to bust his gut to own a home. 1971 sealed the deal, when we wen't off the gold standard, which gave the Feds unlimited power to devalue the dollar as it saw fit and fool the avg. joe into buying S&P units and treasury notes to fuel a credit bubble that makes 1929 look like a pussycat. There is an article on the Gold Eagle site that shows that every country who has liquidated it's gold has had it's currency devalued. The CBers don't wan't you buyin gold and screwing up their FIAT free ride, so their bad mouthin it big time and tell JQ Public buy SOFT at 25x book and forget Gold it's a relic. The FIAT is breaking down big time in the East, it's just a matter of time for the ole USD. It won't be as Almighty as everyone thinks it is. Better get some Gold in your Hold now, before Hashimoto starts sucking it up, he's no dummy, he even brought it up a whole year ago - he knows bubbles! FIAT's are notorious for breaking down and this 1971 model has high miles, and bald tires and knicks all over - it's just been given that miracle detail that all used car dealers put on to sell their ware. If it's not a gulf war, it will be an impossible trade deficit. Now Buffet's isn't as dumb as everyone makes him to be taking delivery of a limited supply / in demand asset at a time that the financial community thinks it passe and no longer relevant. -ggg- bwdik bb

To: Bonnie Bear who wrote (14341)	2/20/1998 10:40:00 AM
From: Defrocked	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18056

The following opinion is my own and is predicated on the expectation of continuing money growth in excess of 10%. Threaders should form their own opinions as always. Some equities may do okay in this environment, such as consumer stocks, computers, possibly autos. One should probably avoid banks, insurance companies and other interest sensitive equities. I also like some communication stocks. This does not mean I am wildly bullish equities. I am still 70%cash/30% equities since October and the 30% equities are '00 Leaps plus a significant private placement (which may hopefully blossom into an IPO this year.) I continue to wait till May before expanding my equity exposure, if at all this year, since I am yet unsure of the Far East fallout and resolution. From my perspective, the risk/reward needle points toward commodities with low carry-outs(Corn), low stocks(Silver), high economic sensitivity(Lumber, oil,sugar?). I will stay on the short end of the curve and even short bonds. I want to diversify my currency holdings out of the dollar and into CHF,DEM,some JPY,and own more gold. This is also prudent given the potential for a strong EMU emerging. These hedge positions must be executed gradually and with care as I expect continued deflationary pulses from the Far East to obfuscate emerging US inflation over the next six months. Patience is required for these trends will probably emerge slowly. Absent a slowdown in M3 growth I expect the inflationary trend will begin entrenchment this spring and be measurable this fall. Greenspan may have difficulty maintaining his policy of gradualism in this scenario. Given high money growth, the Fed's preoccupation with wage inflation is understandable. And they may wait too long to tighten as a result of Far East concerns. Whether the stock market will sense mild inflation, a declining dollar and rising interest rates as a threat is beyond my ken. It was ignored for the most of 1987 and could be also in 1998. Even interest rate hikes could lead to only temporary market declines and subsequently viewed as positive in this euphoric atmosphere. I would urge anyone with substantial equity holdings to begin diversification sooner rather than later and take some of their gains off the table. For those that don't heed this advice, keep in mind that returns carry risk and that Buffet has more information than you do. BWDIK.