To: Reginald Middleton who wrote (30529 ) 2/20/1998 1:23:00 AM From: Chuzzlewit Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 176387
Reginald, I'll answer you in greater detail when I have time, but here is the long and the short of my view. I believe that there is no good objective method of placing a value on a growth company for a variety of reasons, and therefore, I think it's pointless to engage in that kind of activity. Instead, I prefer the MPT view that capital assets are more or less properly priced, and that the markets are basically efficient. Therefore, instead of trying to outsmart other investors, I look for stocks in companies that seem to have outstanding growth potential, and I stay with them so long as that growth story remains intact. If I am correct in my choice of stocks, I can expect appreciation that roughly correlates with the expected growth rates. My actual results for the past 12 months (excluding taxes but including transactions costs) were 53.8%. Value investing implies not only that there are factors known to you which are unknown to the bulk of the investment community, but also that there will general agreement in the appropriateness of the evaluation method at some time in the future. The one sector I believe this to be true is among the oil drillers where investors are fleeing the sector because the price of oil has been dropping. The interesting point is that profits (and cash flow) in this group is generated as a result of the supply/demand ratio of rigs which has more to do with the supply of rigs (there is a big shortage here). So, I believe I have identified a factor (rig shortage) which I believe is unknown to the bulk of the investment community. Paradoxically, in order for this to pay off, I've got to let them know about it, which is why I'm telling you <VBG>! As an aside, this is really the first time I've had the opportunity to argue this point in some time. My usual arguments are with those that believe in TA, which I submit is total witchcraft. But the interesting thing, as I'm sure you're aware, is that efficient markets depend upon people such as you making judgements in the marketplace about how much a security is worth. I'm really enjoying this discussion, and I hope you're not taking my criticism personally (as have several TA-ers). Rregards, Paul