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To: Dale Baker who wrote (519)2/20/1998 6:01:00 PM
From: David Alan CookRead Replies (1) | Respond to of 118717
 
Dale,
REF TSSW Comments: I believe one will do very well by taking a buy and hold approach to investing in turnarounds like TSSW until the fundamental value is reflected in the stock's price. When these companies turnaround they often become overvalued. What do we know today that we did not know when TSSW traded as high as $5 even though the company had reported 7 consecutive qtly losses?:

1) That only one analyst had an estimate of a loss of .06 for the 4th qtr and an estimate of a profit of .13 for the year and that the qtly estimate was way too low.
Is it more or less likely now that this analyst will raise his estimate for the year?
2) That the Industry Price to Earnings Ratio is 50+ and that TSSW has just reported its first profit in 7 qtrs.
Is it more or less likely that TSSW will continue to report a profit in the next few qtrs given a full qtr of Checkit Version 5 sales and Checkit Pro Sales versus only 6 weeks of sales in the 4th qtr?
3) That the Company's revenues were down in the 4th qtr because the company's sales of its PC-Cillin 3 product were flat?
Is it more or less likely that the new marketing agreement just announced with TAMCO. . . a 600 million dollar company will boost sales of TSSW's products in the next few qtrs. TSSW has only about 8 million in revenues.
4) That Larry Jordon ( CEO ) stated in his conference call that " Checkit Version 5 and Checkit Pro sales are better than expected and that the company is launching these products overseas " with good initial acceptance.
Is it more or less likely that these initial results, international agreements and new marketing partner will boost sales of the higher profit margin Checkit products?
5) That TSSW has a strong balance sheet with lots of cash and Sales at a steep discount to the Industry Price to Book and Price to Sales.
Is it more or less likely that TSSW will trade closer to the Industry multiples now that TSSW is turning its operations around?
6) That no insider sold shares when the price of shares traded as high as $5 even though several insiders had huge profits in stock options.
Is it more or less likely that these insiders know that this company is turning its operations around. ( Lots of insider buying last 2 years/ option related buying end of year and only one small option related sale )
7) That several investors in TSSW turn trader very quickly.

Still Bullish on TSSW and am looking for higher highs and a great 98.

DC