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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Qone0 who wrote (87799)9/20/2024 8:48:23 PM
From: Sun Tzu  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 97457
 
AAPL looks like it is on thin ice. Its only saving grace is that the indexes and the flow of funds will soften the blow. Just look at that volume which emphasizes the bearish candle.

If it was any other stock, or if the market looked weak, I'd short it here.

But all the ducks are not lined up for that.



To: Qone0 who wrote (87799)9/22/2024 1:03:38 PM
From: ajtj991 Recommendation

Recommended By
bull_dozer

  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 97457
 
You could just create a collar by buying puts and selling calls above and below the position.

Here's a great explanation of the Yahoo collar Mark Cuban did when he sold Broadcast.com to Yahoo in 1998:


Back in 1998, Mark Cuban sold Broadcast.com to Yahoo! for $5.7 billion in yahoo stock (not cash) he owned about 25% of the company. At the time, Mark Cuban received 14.6 million shares of Yahoo trading at $95, thus his concentrated position had a market value of $1.4 billion. In order to protect the value of the 14.6 million stocks he decided to set up a costless Options Collar, which allowed him to protect his billions without paying any insurance premium. because there was a lock-in period for him to sell the Yahoo shares - often 6 months to 4 years when you hear companies getting acquired - he used these Yahoo shares as collateral for a bank loan, he didn't want to miss the opportunity if Yahoo continued to rally, he chose to enter a collar to lock in his share value without selling the shares. Here is the detail of the option trade:

  1. For each 100 shares of Yahoo stock, 1 contract of put (strike 85) was bought and 1 contract of call (strike 205) was sold. In total there were 146,000 contracts of calls and 146,000 contracts of puts traded.

  2. The premium of the put exactly offset the premium of the call, thus there was zero cost for this trade (Mark probably had to pay a commission but it is likely the commission cost was rolled into the premium as part of the total deal between Mark and brokers or counterparts).

  3. All options expired in 3 years.

Such option structure is called a Collar and it consists of two legs: buying a downside put and selling an upside call. A costless collar has the premium of the put offsetting the call's exactly so that there is no cost to enter the collar trade.

After Cuban's collar trade was entered, Yahoo's share price reached the stratosphere of $237 in January 2000, making his trade look like a mistake. Then the internet bubble burst, and Yahoo reached the abysmal price of $13 (in late 2002), making his trade a stroke of genius, a great risk management trade without out of pocket costs. Cuban was able to pin down the value of the share (or close to 90% of it), no matter the subsequent movement of the stocks, and preserve most of the initial value he received for Broadcast.com.