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Strategies & Market Trends : Young and Older Folk Portfolio -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: chowder who wrote (9794)	9/21/2024 11:36:16 AM
From: dan1944	1 Recommendation Recommended By livwell Respond to of 21937

Chowder: XLE is +0.70% over the past year while the S&P 500 is +31.45%. This shows why I trim energy when the rig count starts to decline. I usually buy back in when the rig rate starts climbing like it did a couple of years ago when XLE was leading the market. If I wanted to start building a position in energy, I would start small and slowly add, but I'm not interested in that at this time, but can see where others might be. Thanks for your reply. I agree that the energy space is certainly confusing, I have taken small positions that I will build/trim based on the market. It is just a play to attempt to play the cycle. Energy is (in my opinion) a significant driver in most products and limiting/controlling the supply is a major factor in our inflation issue. dan

To: chowder who wrote (9794)	9/22/2024 11:45:04 AM
From: R.Daneel.Olivaw	2 Recommendations Recommended By livwell Rincon v2.0 Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21937

Re: Energy and Oil ... Just returned from a drive through Nebraska and S. Dakota... Oceans of crops, (we usually avoid Interstate highways). A few things I follow about energy and oil... One thing of note is chatter around EIA estimates being wrong lately. Blame is being laid to bias toward green energy. Take it or leave it. Hoya Capital on SA, though they combined with iREIT and it's harder to find their oil stuff when searching. The U.S. is now just not energy independent, we are a net exporter of around 4M barrels a day of refined product. The shale revolution changes things, wells can be shut down and spun up in days, new wells online in weeks. Zeihan on Geopolitics In my mind this makes the rig count less important. In the past longer lead times made the counts more stable. Reductions and increases were very important because the oil guys had to be smart about adding/subtracting due to these lead times. Now, not so much. my 2¢.