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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobster who wrote (12256)	2/20/1998 12:06:00 PM
From: JZGalt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

<<Trico Marine: Analyst Revisions: 10 estimates, 0 revised up, 6 revised down>> bobster, Great post with useful information. I agree with the use of earnings estimates when looking at companies and also your comment about deep water vs. land drilling. With regards to Trico specifically: I think what you are seeing in the estimates in the first quarter for TMAR is the effect of stretching out the drydock time to significantly upgrade their boats in excess of normal work done to pass inspection. This has an effect on short term earnings but significantly reduces the expenses and the turnaround times the next time the boats comes in. The other thing that was covered in the conference call was that more of the north sea fleet acquired in Saevik will be coming under longer term contract as opposed to spot work. Day rates will be below those listed in the 1997 year ending quarter, but hopefully the earnings will be more predictable. See my post on OBV and Money flow. I'm sure we could have a chicken and egg conversation about earnings estimates leading the stock price higher vs. OBV and money flow being smart money and predicting the trend ahead of the analysts. It's nice when they are all working in your favor. Right now TMAR is lacking the eps component as you pointed out. ---- Dave

To: bobster who wrote (12256)	2/20/1998 9:48:00 PM
From: Czechsinthemail	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

bobster, I'm curious about your figures on analyst upgrades/downgrades. Over what time period are these revisions taken? Though I agree that monitoring upgrades and downgrades can be a useful exercise, trying to distinguish between companies on the basis of that alone seems oversimplified. For example, DO's estimates were revised downward around problems with one of their ships and their undertaking maintenance and inspection on much of their fleet. Both of these are temporary rather than long term situations, so placing too much emphasis on earnings downgrades based on them makes the company look worse than I think it is. Since you mentioned liking ESV and having reservations about RIG, you might be interested in this comparison of the two companies: 207.183.153.23 regards, Baird