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Technology Stocks : CellularVision (CVUS): 2-way LMDS wireless cable. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James Fink who wrote (1221)	2/20/1998 12:12:00 PM
From: Elliot W	Respond to of 2063

New valuation model: James, why not value CVUS the same as all the sunk costs incurred by the cable companies in wiring the streets of New York? Elliot

To: James Fink who wrote (1221)	2/20/1998 1:20:00 PM
From: jam2000	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2063

Hi, can somebody please explain to me if at all possible, exactly what area's CVUS owns. (IE.) Manhatten, queens, brooklyn, staten island, the bronx, long island.?? Also can some body please clarify what license's they own and what bandwidth too?? Also if I'm not being to much of a pain can somebody explain A-block, B-block and C-block?? And can winstar or wnp buy cvus's territory or are they trying to purchase a different territory like upstate ny? Or are they trying to obtain the same territory both at different bandwiths. Somebody please help im lost! Thanks Respectfully yours, Joseph Ioveno

To: James Fink who wrote (1221)	2/20/1998 2:43:00 PM
From: WTC	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2063

I think you have to consider the C-block auction to be a questionable comparable, at best, for predicting this auction outcome on a pop basis. (The C-block "discount" was also in the 45-48% range, when you take into consideration the favorable financing in addition to the 25% direct discount.) The problem with comparisons, though, is that bidders set their valuations based on business cases using revenue and expense models and penetration forecasts. The PCS business is so different from any of the business applications proposed for LMDS that I dont think there is any rational extrapolation possible. Certainly, there is intrinsic potential value in a PCS license virtually anywhere in the US, but that may not be true for LMDS in remote places where there just is not the demand to get an LMDS system off the ground at all financially. I can practically guarantee you that no serious bidder has set their internal bid limits based on any serious consideration of PCS comparables. I think any prediction as to final auction pop valuation that is not derived from a reasonable examination of business case models for LMDS delivered services is a bald, totally unreliable guess. Guessing can be fun, but let's not dress it up as some sort of faux-science. That view is trumped, of course, if there is major speculative bidding, bidding based on hopes of an opportunity to flip licenses in the near future (3 years?) at a profit. I don't see any signs of that being a winning auction strategy, however. I'm guessing that bid levels will be consistent with what prospective licensees believe they can afford up-front for the license that permits entering a business that creates value for the owners. I acknowledge that the bidding by venture capital consortia and heretofore unknowns in telecom certainly leaves an interesting dimension of intriguing uncertainty -- adds some welcome sport! The business case work I was involved with for LMDS suggests that $25/pop is a BIG burden on profitablity. In secondary markets $25 is totally out of reach if the LMDS venture is to be a profitable enterprise. Others will have different model assumptions, of course ...