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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: skier31 who wrote (88023)	10/10/2024 1:14:17 PM
From: Sun Tzu	2 Recommendations Recommended By ajtj99 skier31 Respond to of 96943

There are two types of trade that I do: trend following, and counter trend. Trend following is when they go above 60 or fall below 40 (I know most people do it the other way around). Counter trend happens when both of these guys are below 8 (ideally below 5) and then turn around. However this was not the point I was trying to make. A big question (for me) is always whether we are in a BTFD mode or STFR mode. That question is decided by the black and red indicator (sorry for the shitty graphics, they looked better on my screen). If you follow that, you see that it follows the business cycle pretty well. While the business is in a down cycle (i.e. the red line is hovering near zero) any run ups (pointed to by the purple line) are short lived and typically not very profitable. But once the business cycle comes to life, you see longer and faster run ups in the stock and you can be more aggressive in buying it. It is during this phase that you should ladder up using the purple indicator. That is the question I was answering, how to ladder. EDIT - One last thing: as I often emphasize, your choice of timeframe is foundational. In that chart, the timeframe was chosen to encapsulate the business cycle. Obviously if I ran it on a 1 minute bar, it would not have held true.

To: skier31 who wrote (88023)

10/10/2024 1:19:13 PM

From: Sun Tzu

Respond to of 96943

EDIT - One last thing: as I often emphasize, your choice of timeframe is foundational. In that chart, the timeframe was chosen to encapsulate the business cycle. Obviously if I ran it on a 1 minute bar, it would not have held true.

To: skier31 who wrote (88023)	10/10/2024 1:27:12 PM
From: Sun Tzu	1 Recommendation Recommended By skier31 Respond to of 96943

Sorry - I am multitasking and just realized what post you were replying to. My answer doesn't change much, but there are a couple of things to add: CMMB is a pre-clinical stage biotech. So there is no business cycle for them to speak of. I thought you were talking about my MU chart. That one does have a business cycle and I had picked parameters to match the cycle. That doesn't work for something like CMMB. Nonetheless, the trade I engaged in on CMMB is counter trend anticipation. It is very oversold on both parameters, but it is still on an uptrend (per the blue line). Given the jumpiness in biotechs, it is a worthwhile risk/reward for me because my stoploss is only a little lower. Because it is in an uptrend and oversold on both parameters, I'd rather be early than late. There is a stoploss here that will trigger another buy point further down, but that will be the last one. Beyond that the uptrend is likely broken and I will reassess.