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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (3337)	2/20/1998 2:48:00 PM
From: Pullin-GS	Respond to of 18691

I usually don't hold trades over the weekend....took my profits and ran.

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (3337)	2/20/1998 7:37:00 PM
From: Rajiv	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Roger and all, Take a look at USWB (one of the many internet stocks that have hit the IPO market - I wonder how long it will take before the supply of the internet paper to exceed the demand). USWB has around 34M outstanding shares and around 12M options. The float is 5.75 million shares with the remainder of the outstanding shares in a lockup period. At $19-20, this company is valued at almost 1 billion. IMHO, USWB is way overvalued USWB is in the business of (in its words) providing Intranet, Extranet and Web site solutions and services to medium-sized and large companies. (in my words) making web pages. It is on a big acquisition spree - taking over 20+ small webshops to build a country wide network. It has filed a S-4 to register 16,666,667 shares of its Common Stock for use in future acquisitions. Serious dilution is on the way. Its latest quarterly earnings report biz.yahoo.com claims a sequential quarterly revenue increase of 85%. However, on a pro forma basis (IMHO, this is more relevant), it is showing an increase of only 16%. IMHO, this growth rate is very low and does not justify even half of USWB's market cap. The company is bleeding money - it will not earn money for quite some time. It claims to have an impressive list of clients - however this list includes any company which has yielded revenue of more than just 50k. Its 30 largest clients spent from 100k to 400k each - this leads me to believe that this company is nothing more than a body-shop specializing in personnel with webpage creation experience (the internet connection causing a ridiculous market valuation). From my experience, any respectably sized company has an in-house team to create and maintain webpages. This sector has extremely low barriers of entry - high-school kids can compete too. Its SEC filings are a blatant use of name-dropping. It claims of having strategic business relationships with Intel, SUN, Microsoft, HWP, Reuters, etc. On closer evaluation Microsoft - It is a Microsoft certified solution provider (there are hundreds of them). Sun - authorized reseller of the Sun Netra range of products. Most of these "strategic relationships" is nothing more than being one of the certified educational program providers. IMHO, none of these relationships will ever provide serious revenue sources. The Intel relationship has (unlike the others) some financial backing (Intel bought 10M worth of shares at $6 each). I have initiated a short position at $19.75. Comments ? Regards Rajiv

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (3337)	2/20/1998 7:48:00 PM
From: LRS	Respond to of 18691

What are your thoughts on COF? It has been on quite a tear recently and is beginning to leave its fundamentals behind. Some see it as a takeover candidate, but that seems questionable to me.

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (3337)	2/21/1998 11:10:00 AM
From: Kip518	Respond to of 18691

Feb short interest figures out. CYMI short interested declined 12.8% from 4,659,142 to 4,061,600. Avg. daily vol 737,945.