KABOOM: POS Trump's Chances PLUNGE in Major Election Forecast
newsweek.com
Former President Donald Trump's chances of winning the election fell Wednesday, according to a top election forecast.
Less than a week before Election Day, The Economist's forecast showed that the Republican nominee's projected Electoral College votes plunged six points since Tuesday, from 275 to 269.
The decline means Trump and the Democratic nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris, are tied with 269 electoral votes each. In this scenario, neither would win the Electoral College, and the election would be placed in the hands of Congress, with the presidential election heading to the House, and the vice presidential race going to the Senate.
Trump's chances declined from 56 percent to 50 percent, while Harris' increased from 44 percent to 50 percent, according to the forecast, which also shows that Harris is set to win the battleground states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada, while Trump will win Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.
Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally in Allentown, Pennsylvania, on October 29. Trump's chances of winning the election have dropped, according to a top election forecast. Matt Rourke/APNewsweek has contacted the Harris and Trump campaigns for comment.
The gain for Harris is down to a set of surveys in Rust Belt states Michigan and Wisconsin, where she is up by 7 and 8 points, respectively, since Tuesday. She also improved her chances of winning North Carolina, up 5 points in a day.
According to The Economist's poll tracker, Harris is ahead nationally, 49 percent to 48 percent.
Other polling aggregators suggest that Harris is winning the popular vote, while Trump is on track to win the Electoral College, which would send him back to the Oval Office. Pollster Nate Silver's forecast shows that Harris is 0.9 points ahead, with a 71 percent chance of winning the popular vote. However, owing to Trump's position in the swing states, his forecast shows that Harris has a 44 percent chance of winning the Electoral College to Trump's 55 percent chance.
Meanwhile, 538 shows Harris 1.4 points ahead nationally but gives Trump a 52 percent chance of winning to Harris' 48 percent.
Both aggregators show Trump ahead in Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia and Pennsylvania, while Harris is ahead in Michigan and Wisconsin, though her margins have declined in both states in the past month. The 538 forecast shows Harris 0.1 points ahead in Nevada, while Silver's forecast shows the candidates tied. Harris previously was ahead by at least 2 points in the state.
One pollster has suggested the polls could be underestimating Harris' support.
The polls underestimated Trump's levels of support in 2016 and 2020. And this year, according to CNN analyst Harry Enten, the tables could be turned.
"Here's the bottom line," he said. "I think a lot of folks are counting that Donald Trump will in fact be underestimated by the polls, but when I'm looking at the evidence, I think that there are folks who are underestimating the idea that maybe Kamala Harris will be underestimated by the polls, at least a week out."
Nonetheless, with one week to go, the race remains to be only getting tighter.
"The race has gone from almost a toss-up to definitely a toss-up," Jon Parker, senior lecturer in American studies at Keele University in the U.K., told Newsweek last week. |
