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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lazlo Pierce who wrote (3346)	2/20/1998 5:27:00 PM
From: Pancho Villa	Respond to of 18691

To David and also IMO a very imprtant message to all>>Pancho, Don't these BFIT investors know they are supposed to take some profits after a runup (especially when everyone else is)? :-) Oh well, was hopin to get ahead on this one faster than this, but, I got a coupla guns still ready to fire @ 28 and 30 (hope I don't have to)<< Ammunition is running low south of the border but if need be I also have a few shots left. I did not short today. Next stop for shorting will be 29-30 if we get there. NOW the important part. Why is the stock going up? I think there are two reasons (the second one is more a qeustion to all /especulation than an answer): 1. IMO momentum oriented mutual funds may be buying. IMO these fellows don't put much time into deciding how to spend some other people's money which in any vent is a pretty small fraction of their portfolio. 2. I wonder if big guys interested in shorting this puppy have a way of bidding up the share price with little investment/risk. For example, they may simultaneously buy put options (don't know if BFIT trades options) and go long the stock in a way that the price is bid up [not difficult in a stock with this volume]. The long position is hedged at a cost (the cost of the put). Once the stock price is higher and the momentum guys get attracted to it [look at the volume lately] they start selling their relative small long position [remember daily volume is now much higher] and them continue selling right into the short with much larger volumes of stock at higher prices. IMO, Asensio may have done something similar to this with WDRY which went "through the roof" before he went public with it. Any feed back on my theory? Pancho