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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tunica Albuginea who wrote (5564)	2/20/1998 4:55:00 PM
From: go_bucks	Respond to of 23519

I(1.074^52) will be the # of fills for the first week of 99! Assumptions: 1. I is the # of fills the first week of 1998 2. 7.4% is the growth rate of refills every week (per Dr. Bond this should be 1.5% actually) 3. This is a BIG IF... that the grwoth rate of 1.5% is sustainable throughout the year. 4. Another big IF... that the # of new fills stay flat (not UP not DOWN throught out the year) at I per week If all the assumptions above hold.. then the total fills for 1998 should be: I+I(1.074)+...+I(1.074)^51 Now I haven't touched these math problems for ... many years since out of college ... reviews welcome :) Charlie

To: Tunica Albuginea who wrote (5564)	2/20/1998 5:15:00 PM
From: Joe Master	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23519

The biggest problem with your numbers as I see them is the refill rate wont be 7.4% per week it just seems too high. Also the $120 per fill is higher than actual retail. It should be about $90 and remember this is retail VVUS only gets the wholesale price which would be 30% (or so less).

To: Tunica Albuginea who wrote (5564)	2/20/1998 9:59:00 PM
From: RT	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 23519

TO ALL, Tunica , I know I asked you to put a positive spin on what I thought was a low refill rate and your son (the math genius) comes up with 3.4 billion in sales after one year. WOW. Vivus needs to hire him as their new CFO. Am I correct in assuming that the refill number is the total of all patients who have reordered the product more than once.. Of the 500,000 patients who ordered muse once, only 4,853 patients have reordered more than once this past week. Is that what this scrip data is telling us? RT PS. Where can we get a recap of the scrip data for the past year?

To: Tunica Albuginea who wrote (5564)	2/20/1998 10:34:00 PM
From: Cacaito	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 23519

HVSFD "patent" claims an "intrameatal" delivery, they are calling the opening of the urethra (the meatus) a different anatomic part of the penis,at least different enough to justify their "patent". A different word to keep selling their worthless stock. This will not hold in any court, one only need a dictionary to see it. Meatus urinarius: opening part of the urethra. So if it is delivered intrameatally, it is the same as delivered intraurethrally and cover by Vivus patent.