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To: Vattila who wrote (60070)	11/1/2024 1:12:35 PM
From: Dan3	Respond to of 72138

The significant growth for AMD over the past year has come from datacenter, where Intel competition was lagging badly until a slew of new products showed up from them, this quarter. AMD has serious competition in datacenter tech for the first time in years. For the coming year, AMD market share growth will have to come from other sources, and they could have to reduce margins to even maintain zero growth in the segment. I think that's the biggest concern for them, at this point. Intel, OTOH, has just wrapped up a classic "kitchen sink" quarter, where they took hits for damages incurred over the past couple of years in a single quarter. Going forward, they're suddenly competitive in their largest segment for the first time, in a long time. They've made a lot of painful cuts to reduce costs. We will continue to wait for proof that 18a/14a will ultimately be successful, but that will still be an unknown until ~q2 of next year. Early samples should be showing up in the wild, around that point. For Gelsinger to have claimed it had gone well, so far, if that weren't the truth, would open him (and many other people) up for criminal charges and personal liability. That it will continue to go well, is unknown. Remember the old "progress reports" from AMD? Last month, for instance, AMD announced it had figured out how to get a 30 per cent performance boost out of SOI, using 'fully depleted' SOI films within each transistor - a major step toward the 'perfect' SOI transistor. theregister.com So, we won't know until we know. The same goes for TSMC's 20a process, where TSMC seems to be channeling some of Intel's "reduce costs by avoiding bleeding edge processes" strategies from 2017.Maybe this time will be different...

To: Vattila who wrote (60070)

11/1/2024 2:39:02 PM

From: THE WATSONYOUTH

Respond to of 72138

....well....the only thing that matters from a predictive point of view are the likelihoods. I think your likelihoods are way off........also you have to assume no looming recession......here are my guesses without a recession


Pessimistic: Underdog, meek or no growth, precarious future	<10%	<$26B	<50%	<$4	<$160B	<$100	0%
Stable: Respected competitor in growing markets	10–30%	$26B–44B	50–55%	$4–7	$160B–320B	$100–200	50%
Optimistic: Matches competitors, high margins and solid growth	30–50%	$44B–67B	55–60%	$7–9	$320B–640B	$200–400	50%
Pie-in-the-sky: Overtakes competitors, leading innovation and markets	>50%	>$67B	>60%	>$9	>$640B	>$400	0%

To: Vattila who wrote (60070)	11/1/2024 2:44:41 PM
From: Joe NYC	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 72138

Re: Client segment. If you go back in your chart, and AMD had nearly $700m operating profit in client segment at one point. That was based on revenue that was 300m higher. Now we are at $276 operating profit, and in good position to regain that old level of profitability. Intel is simply not going to be in position to dump / staff channel. Intel's current CPUs have higher cost than AMD CPUs, and old Raptor is becoming radioactive. Nobody will want to touch it. How radioactive? Intel lost $457m of desktop revenue from Q2 to Q3. This was all Raptor Lake. This desktop revenue was offset by $400m increase in notebook revenue, but Lunar Lake notebook CPUs include memory, so part of the notebook revenue is a fake revenue. Just reselling memory at cost. Even after this desktop segment disaster, Intel still has $2 billion in desktop revenue (far more than were were using in our assumptions). From Intel 10Q:

To: Vattila who wrote (60070)	11/2/2024 6:28:57 AM
From: Vattila	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 72138

Just to elaborate a little on this: > I suspect [gaming GPU] is a segment where Lisa Su has little input and little enthusiasm. And she is yet to find someone with the interest, talent and drive to make something happen here. As mentioned, I am a little disappointed with the underappreciation of the Radeon brand and the underrepresentation in the market, relative to the strength of the product. I thought of but forgot to mention Jack Heuyn, who after leading the Semi-Custom Group, took over the Computing and Graphics Group last year (replacing Rick Bergman). Just days ago, he personally and prominently launched the V-Cache variant of "Zen 5" in a video where he depicts himself as a gamer. Maybe he has got what it takes to make something happen for Radeon. We'll see.