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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bull_dozer who wrote (208734)	11/2/2024 3:06:00 AM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217655

re <<China has ramped up buying>> ... ... well, unclear that China is buying anything, and perhaps at most is only swapping. Technicalities aside, possibly US is paying for the gold / silver that China is keeping, mathematically-speaking, and that the more the US buys, the more China keeps, a bizarre state of is. Possibly that am thinking too much. All shall become clearer doubtless as we go through 2026, approach 2032, have hint of 2042, and ready to imagine 2049. As the Russia-proposed precious metals exchange ramps up operation, China acts to match, and India starts to tag, liquidity, in terms of precious metals might well demand enhanced curation of such from the sources, and by so doing, LBMA and COMEX peripheralise and second-fiddle-ize. Guesses.

To: bull_dozer who wrote (208734)	11/2/2024 5:10:32 AM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217655

re <<*FCKING FCKS>> ... coming week might be good for metals zerohedge.com Jobs Shock: October Payrolls Huge Miss As Private Jobs Go Negative For First Time Since 2020* In our nonfarm payrolls preview last night, we said that the October payrolls report may show the first negative print since 2020. Well, moments ago the BLS reported the highly anticipated number and... it was close: the monthly print was only 12K, a huge drop from the pre-revision 254K in October (revised naturally lower to 223K), and just 13K away from a negative print. [url=][/url] The print was so low it was only above the two lowest estimates (those of Bloomberg Econ for -10K and ABN Amr0 for a 0 print). That means it was a 3 sigma miss to estimates. [url=][/url] And of course, as has been the case for the entire Biden admin, previous months were revised sharply lower once again: August was revised down by 81,000, from +159,000 to +78,000, and September was revised down by 31,000, from +254,000 to +223,000. With these revisions, employment in August and September combined is 112,000 lower than previously reported. This means that even after the monster September revision when 818K jobs were removed, 7 of the past 9 months were again revised lower! [url=][/url] This means that once the November jobs are released, we can be virtually certain that October will be revised to negative. But wait, there's more because while the total payroll number was just barely positive, if one excludes the 40K government jobs, private payrolls was in fact negative to the tune of -28K, down from 223K pre-revision last month, and the first negative print since December 2020. In other words, we were right... when it comes to actual, non-parasite "government" jobs. [url=][/url] To be sure, as we noted yesterday, a big part of the drop was due to the one-time event discussed, including the Boeing strike and Hurricanes Helene and Milton. This is what the BLS said on the topic: "In October, the household survey was conducted largely according to standard procedures, and response rates were within normal ranges" however, "the initial establishment survey collection rate for October was well below average. However, collection rates were similar in storm-affected areas and unaffected areas. A larger influence on the October collection rate for establishment data was the timing and length of the collection period. This period, which can range from 10 to 16 days, lasted 10 days in October and was completed several days before the end of the month." More importantly, the BLS said that "it is likely that payroll employment estimates in some industries were affected by the hurricanes; however, it is not possible to quantify the net effect on the over-the-month change in national employment, hours, or earnings estimates because the establishment survey is not designed to isolate effects from extreme weather events. There was no discernible effect on the national unemployment rate from the household survey." Ironically, while the BLS was unable to "quantify the net effect" from the hurricanes, it was able to calculate that the number of people not at work due to weather surged to the third highest in recent history, up 512K! [url=][/url] In other words, the BLS now has an excuse to blame the plunge on, it just doesn't know how to quantify it. Translation: if Trump is president next month, expect the downtrend to continue with little to no mention of hurricane as the BLS prepares to admit the true state of the labor market; if however Kamala wins, the November jobs will magically rebound (even as downward revisions accelerate) and all shall be back to fake normal. Oh, and of course, today's catastrophic jobs print gives the Fed a full carte blanche to again cut 25bps next week, even if the plunge was all hurricanes... The rest of the jobs report was not that exciting: the unemployment rate printed at 4.1%, unchanged from last month and in line with expectations. The number of unemployed people was little changed at 7.0 million. [url=][/url] Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (3.9 percent), adult women (3.6 percent), teenagers (13.8 percent), Whites (3.8 percent), Blacks (5.7 percent), Asians (3.9 percent), and Hispanics (5.1 percent) showed little or no change over the month. [url=][/url] It's worth noting that the unemployment rate actually rose almost 0.1% despite being reported as flat because in September it was 4.05% and in October it was 4.145%, and rose due to a surge in layoffs (+166K) as well as re-entrants (+108K). Additionally, as Southbay research notes, the average duration of unemployment rose from 22.6 weeks to 22.9 weeks Wage growth came in slightly higher than expected, with average hourly earnings rising 0.4% in October, higher than the 0.3% expected, and up from the downward revised 0.3% in September (was 0.4%). On an annual basis, earnings rose 4.0%, in line with expectations, and above the downward revised 3.9% (was 4.0%). [url=][/url] Some more stats from the latest monthly report: Among the unemployed, the number of permanent job losers edged up to 1.8 million in October. The number of people on temporary layoff changed little at 846,000. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed at 1.6 million in October. This measure is up from 1.3 million a year earlier. In October, the long-term unemployed accounted for 22.9 percent of all unemployed people. Both the labor force participation rate, at 62.6 percent, and the employment-population ratio, at 60.0 percent, changed little in October. The number of people employed part time for economic reasons was little changed at 4.6 million in October. The number of people not in the labor force who currently want a job, at 5.7 million, was essentially unchanged in October. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job. Among those not in the labor force who wanted a job, the number of people marginally attached to the labor force, at 1.6 million, was little changed in October. These individuals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months but had not looked for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. The number of discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached who believed that no jobs were available for them, changed little at 379,000 in October. Turning to the establishment survey, we find the following breakdown in jobs: Health care added 52,000 jobs in October, in line with the average monthly gain of 58,000 over the prior 12 months. Over the month, employment rose in ambulatory health care services (+36,000) and nursing and residential care facilities (+9,000). Employment in government continued its upward trend in October (+40,000), similar to the average monthly gain of 43,000 over the prior 12 months. Over the month, employment continued to trend up in state government (+18,000). Within professional and business services, employment in temporary help services declined by 49,000 in October. Temporary help services employment has decreased by 577,000 since reaching a peak in March 2022. Manufacturing employment decreased by 46,000 in October, reflecting a decline of 44,000 in transportation equipment manufacturing that was largely due to strike activity. Employment in construction changed little in October (+8,000). The industry had added an average of 20,000 jobs per month over the prior 12 months. Over the month, nonresidential specialty trade contractors added 14,000 jobs. And visually: [url=][/url] Three things stick out here: First, manufacturing is a disaster, with the US losing manufacturing jobs for 3 months in a row, and 4 of the last 5. Can't blame that on hurricanes. [url=][/url] Second, the number of construction jobs is becoming absolutely ridiculous, especially when contrasted with the plunge in actual housing starts, completions and last but not least, actual job openings. [url=][/url] Finally, delta between government jobs and private jobs was a whopping 12K, the biggest since covid. This means that more government jobs were added in October than all private jobs lost in the month! Just in case you needed to know how the Biden admin avoided a negative total headline print. [url=][/url]

To: bull_dozer who wrote (208734)	11/3/2024 12:28:23 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217655

*>> THE FCKING FCKS* … meant to earlier ask your opinion, will the Kamala or the Donald win make our gold go up higher faster? Am trying to discern whether $9,000 is a better number than $3,000 zerohedge.com bloomberg.com Fed and Peers Will Go Ahead With Rate Cuts After This Week’s US Election - 20 central bank decisions scheduled as Americans go to polls - Fed, BOE, Riksbank may cut, while jumbo Brazil hike expected

To: bull_dozer who wrote (208734)	11/3/2024 3:15:11 AM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217655

Looking GUDDEEUP (gold up dollar down everything else up) Unless the Fed wishes to make job difficult for WH 2025 reuters.com Fed seen on track for 25-basis-point rate cuts next week and in December Ann Saphir November 1, 202411:31 PM GMT+8Updated 2 days ago A career center sign is seen as Kentucky Labor Cabinet reopens 13 Regional Career Centers for in-person unemployment insurance services, in Louisville, Kentucky, U.S., April 15, 2021.... Nov 1 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve policymakers look all but certain to reduce short-term borrowing costs by a modest quarter of a percentage point at their policy meeting next week, their confidence that the labor market is cooling but not crashing likely intact despite new data showing U.S. employers added fewer workers in October than in any month since December 2020. The increase of 12,000 nonfarm payroll jobs last month was far short of the 113,000 economists had anticipated. But analysts pinned the bulk of the weak showing on the tens of thousands of workers kept temporarily off the job by a Boeing strike and the impact of two large hurricanes in the U.S. Southeast, as well as a poor response rate that clouds the true state of U.S. employment. Some 512,000 people reported they were unable to work due to bad weather, the most for the month of October since the Bureau of Labor Statistics began tracking that figure in 1976. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, low by historical standards. But the report had weak spots. It showed that it may be getting harder to find a job once a person is out of work, with the average length of unemployment rising to 22.9 weeks, from 20.6 weeks in September. The labor force also shrank by 220,000 people, and the three-month average monthly job gain after downward revisions to prior months' reports is now about 104,000, well below what most economists estimate is needed to keep up with immigration-fueled population growth. Line graph showing monthly and three month average job gains."Bad weather and large labor strikes muddy the water and make labor market weakness appear worse than it truly is," Scott Anderson, chief U.S. economist at BMO Capital Markets, wrote in a note. "Still, the Fed's job is to see through the noise, and they will probably take some signal from the continuing labor market softening as a sign that they can continue the process of monetary normalization without much fear of igniting another bout of inflation." Data earlier this week showed inflation by the Fed's targeted measure running at 2.1% in September, just a notch above its 2% goal, though sticky underlying price pressures are expected to keep U.S. central bankers wary of declaring victory too early. Notably, interest rate futures prices on Friday reflected no chance the Fed would deliver another half-percentage-point rate cut, as it did in September when it began easing policy to head off deterioration in labor markets. Traders of futures that settle to the Fed's policy rate instead moved to price in about a 99% chance that the central bank on Nov. 7 would cut its policy rate by a quarter of a percentage point to the 4.50%-4.75% range, compared with 92% before the release of the jobs data. They see about an 83% chance that the policy rate will be in the 4.25%-4.50% range by the end of this year, compared with 69% earlier. Fed policymakers will begin their next two-day policy meeting a day after the U.S. presidential election on Tuesday, and though the result is not expected to directly factor into their decision two days later, many analysts see election uncertainty as an added temporary weight on the labor market in October that could be reversed in coming months. Financial markets currently see the Fed lowering its policy rate to the 3.50%-3.75% range by September of next year. Line graph showing various measures of inflation and the Federal Reserve's policy rate of interest.

To: bull_dozer who wrote (208734)	11/3/2024 8:26:40 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217655

*>> THE FCKING FCKS* ... might just happen per hereunder, and it is still out there just how much monetary liquidity, fiscal measures, and policy support the Team China Parliament shall authorise 8th November 2025, a few days after your elections am guessing that what ever the secret decisioning and public pronouncement, some shall mumble 'not enough' and others intone 'too much'. I shall treat whatever numbers and words put on the table as 'phase I of whatever it takes' in resolution of tech war, financial battle, demographic workout, ... and the plan through 2026, smack into 2032, onward to 2042, and arrival at 2049. zerohedge.com How Chinese Traders Will Help Drive Gold to $3,000+ BY TYLER DURDEN MONDAY, NOV 04, 2024 - 07:40 AM By Jesse Colombo of the Bubble Bubble Substack In my debut Substack article on September 6th, I theorized that Chinese futures traders would return from their summer hiatus with renewed vigor, to drive gold prices sharply higher once again in an encore of their spring performance, when they pushed prices up by $400, or 23%, in just six weeks. When I wrote that article, gold was trading at $2,497 an ounce; today, it stands at $2,738 an ounce. I'm now providing an update because the trend I anticipated is unfolding as expected, and I believe the most thrilling, explosive phase is still to come. The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) gold futures were the primary vehicle behind the gold frenzy in March and April, a surge that subsequently spilled over into international gold prices: [url=][/url] A fascinating Financial Times article from that time titled " Chinese Speculators Super-Charge Gold Rally" highlighted how trading volume in SHFE gold futures had surged by 400%, propelling gold prices to record highs: [url=][/url] The spring Chinese gold trading frenzy can also be seen in the chart of long open interest in SHFE gold futures: [url=][/url] Following the Chinese-driven gold frenzy in the spring, it was as if a switch flipped off on April 15th, leading SHFE gold futures to trade sideways for five months. In my original September 6th article, I explained that SHFE gold futures were merely taking a pause, likely setting the stage for another surge similar to the one seen in the spring. I also noted that a decisive close above the 585 resistance level would trigger a new rally in gold prices—not only in China but globally. As the chart below shows, that’s precisely what’s happening: [url=][/url] As shown in the chart below, the international spot price of gold in U.S. dollars traded in a choppy manner from April until mid-September, when it hit an inflection point and began climbing vigorously once again. This timing is no coincidence; it aligns with SHFE gold futures breaking out of their trading range, drawing Chinese traders—known for their strong affinity for gold—back into the market. [url=][/url] Technical analysis of SHFE gold futures implies that the international gold price in U.S. dollars should reach approximately $3,000 per ounce during the current rally. This projection relies on the concept of a “measured move,” where the price following a consolidation pattern or trading range is expected to rise by the same number of points as the rally preceding the consolidation. The diagram below illustrates how measured moves work: [url=][/url] The chart of SHFE gold futures below shows a 105 yuan/gram rally in the spring, followed by a five-month trading range. This suggests that the current rally should also reach 105 yuan/gram, projecting a target of 690 yuan/gram, or roughly $3,000 per ounce. This target is also logical because $3,000 is a significant psychological level, and major levels like that typically act like a magnet for prices. And, in case $3,000 seems ambitious, it’s only a 9.3% increase from current levels. I’m confident that gold will climb even higher in the course of this bull market, though it may pause or consolidate around the $3,000 level for a time to catch its breath. [url=][/url] Gold analysts and investors who closely follow developments in China often monitor whether the domestic Chinese gold price trades at a premium or discount compared to the international price. In recent months, China’s domestic gold price experienced an unusual discount of up to $40.60 per ounce against the international price. However, this discount has quickly reversed following the breakout in SHFE gold futures, with Chinese gold now trading at a $1.10 per ounce premium over the international price. This transition from a discount to a premium is an indication that gold trading activity in China is starting to heat up once again. [url=][/url] Another sign that gold trading activity in China is heating up is the recent increase in SHFE gold futures trading volume over the past two months. As seen in the chart, volume surged dramatically during the spring rally. While trading activity is currently rising in a measured and orderly way, I expect it to ramp up significantly as the rally progresses toward $3,000. That’s when the real frenzy in Chinese gold trading will likely begin in earnest. [url=][/url] Despite rising gold prices and increased trading activity, the high cost of gold has actually dampened physical consumer demand in China. According to Bloomberg, overall demand fell by 22% to 218 tons in the three months leading to September, with jewelry consumption dropping 29% to 130 tons and bar and coin purchases declining 9% to 69 tons. This suggests that the rapid price surge has created sticker shock for many Chinese consumers, who are likely waiting for a price dip to buy at more favorable levels. The reality is that high gold prices are here to stay, however, with even further increases ahead as global debt, money supply, and inflation continue to rise. Soon—possibly during the intense “frenzy phase” I mentioned—physical gold buyers may recognize that prices aren’t dropping and, driven by the fear of missing out (FOMO), start buying aggressively before prices climb even higher. This shift in behavior will only add further fuel to the fire. Another factor supporting the bullish outlook for gold in China is the country's struggling economy, weighed down by the collapse of massive bubbles in real estate and the stock market. In response, the Chinese government recently announced a plan to issue special sovereign bonds totaling approximately 2 trillion yuan ($284.43 billion) this year as part of a new fiscal stimulus. Fiscal and monetary stimulus programs are typically bullish for gold because they add to national debt, debase the currency, and drive inflation higher. Burdened by a substantial overhang of bad debt, inflated asset prices, “zombie” companies, and a rapidly aging population, China is now on a path toward an addiction to stimulus to keep its economy afloat—much like the United States, Europe, and Japan. [url=][/url][url=]Source: [/url] Financial Times In conclusion, the stage is set for Chinese traders and investors to continue fueling a powerful rally in gold prices, pushing it to $3,000 and then beyond. Now that SHFE gold futures have broken out of their consolidation and trading activity is heating up once again, all indicators point toward a renewed surge that could mirror or even surpass the intensity of the spring rally. Meanwhile, China’s economic struggles and increasing reliance on stimulus add further support to the bullish outlook for gold. As global debt and inflationary pressures rise, and with Chinese physical gold investors and consumers likely to return in droves once they recognize that high gold prices are here to stay, the conditions are primed for an explosive phase in the gold market. This momentum, driven by both domestic factors in China and international dynamics, is likely just the beginning of an even greater upward trend. Also watch the video presentation of this report:

To: bull_dozer who wrote (208734)	11/3/2024 8:40:49 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217655

*>> THE FCKING FCKS* ... below is arguably as consequentiaL to the value of gold as the US elections bloomberg.com China Stimulus Questions to Persist Long After Meeting This Week Meeting in Beijing set to unlock fiscal resources for stimulus US presidential ballot this week adds to uncertainty for China Chinese lawmakers are gathering in the shadow of the US election to sign off on a fiscal package that’s set to run into the trillions of yuan yet is unlikely to put the market fully at ease. The stakes have grown for this week’s conclave of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress, the executive body of the nation’s top legislature, as it’s expected to round out China’s largest effort to lift growth since the pandemic. The session in Beijing on Nov. 4-8 will probably unlock additional resources meant to take the pressure off local governments and recapitalize major state lenders, according to banks such as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and HSBC Holdings Plc. But with the US presidential race still tight and Chinese policymakers putting priority on the more immediate challenges facing the $18 trillion economy, it may be months before detailed plans to support consumption come into focus. Policy-setting meetings in December or March are the next key dates to watch for clues about measures to prop up consumer spending power, which will be crucial to turning around sentiment. “They don’t want to come up with a big number and then not be able to get it done,” said Nicholas Yeo, head of China equities at abrdn. “The government is very cautious about spending.” Xi Jinping, center, with senior leaders and delegates at the National Peoples Congress in Beijing in March.Photographer: Kevin Frayer/Getty ImagesThe lingering suspense over the pacing and targets of fiscal support will complicate investment decisions for traders already whipsawed by the volatility stalking Chinese markets since a stimulus blitz in September sought to encourage lending and offered support for the stocks and property markets. The outcome of the US election could also force Beijing to strengthen efforts to bolster domestic demand, given the threat by Republican nominee Donald Trump to impose hefty tariffs on Chinese goods if elected. Economists at Goldman Sachs, Macquarie Group, and Nomura Holdings Inc. predict lawmakers this week will back at least 1 trillion yuan ($140 billion) in quota of special sovereign bond issuance to replenish bank capital. They also expect approval for an increase in local government bond sales either this week or in the coming months to swap so-called hidden debt over several years, with forecasts ranging from about 6 trillion yuan to 10 trillion yuan. Nomura anticipates the eventual scale of China’s fiscal stimulus package to reach 2%-3% of gross domestic product annually over the next several years, with a Trump win to push its size toward the higher end. “For us, the specific size of the stimulus package is less important than the area of focus for the package to be deployed,” said Herald van der Linde, head of Asia-Pacific equity strategy at HSBC. “Property is important to stabilize sentiment and growth. And China could focus on stimulating consumption.” China's Fiscal Spending Not a Boost to Growth YetSpending was meant to rise 3% this year, but is down 1% so far Source: China's Ministry of Finance Note: Shows augmented spending (from the main budgets and fund budgets) The capital injection will aim to improve the capacity of state-owned banks to extend credit as they heed the government’s call to lend more at lower interest rates to help the economy. It’s an approach that’s narrowed margins to record lows and undermined their ability to boost capital with profits. China’s local governments have meanwhile been scaling backspending as the economic downturn and a years-long property slump erode revenues from taxes and land sales. Many are also cautious about taking on new borrowing to finance investment amid falling returns and as they scramble to comply with President Xi Jinping’s crackdown on hidden liabilities. The debt swap program will bring local governments’ off-balance-sheet borrowing onto their books, lowering the interest costs and giving the authorities more time to repay, which in turn will free up resources for regions to ramp up spending. What Bloomberg Economics Says...“The NPC standing committee might provide more information on fiscal resources the government will devote to stimulus. In our view, the meeting is unlikely to increase the budget for 2024. But given the strong hints by the government on potentially stronger fiscal support, the committee is likely to give some topline figures on resources for debt resolution and support for households and companies.” — Chang Shu, Eric Zhu and David Qu. For full analysis, click here While a swap of 1 trillion yuan may add just 2 basis points directly to GDP growth, the boost would be “larger” if some proceeds from refinancing bond issuance can be used to repay overdue wages to civil servants and arrears to businesses, according to estimates by Goldman economists including Lisheng Wang. An additional 1-2 trillion yuan in government borrowing per year may also be put in place to ease local fiscal stress, with the relevant “extra budget” to be passed by the legislators this week, Nomura economists led by Lu Ting wrote in an Oct. 28 note. The government could announce additional spending programs worth up to 4 trillion yuan — probably financed mainly through more bond sales — at the annual full session of the NPC in March or even later to strengthen the social safety net for low-income groups, encourage childbirth, and ensure the delivery of pre-sold homes, they said. China Local Government Infrastructure Funds Are Spending LessBeijing has yet to find way to offset slumping expenditure Source: China's Ministry of Finance “The old playbook that they have always used is infrastructure and real estate — but there’s a need for domestic consumption to do some of the lifting,” said abrdn’s Yeo. “That shift has to happen at some point. That is the one thing that we want to see.” But Beijing has been hesitant to hand out massive, direct subsidies to consumers. A main factor behind the reluctance is the potential cost of such programs in a nation of 1.4 billion people where GDP per capita is less than $13,000, or just 15% of that in the US, along with a greater propensity to save. Another concern centers on the effectiveness of consumption stimulus given the lack of a proper system to identify those most in need and therefore more likely to actually spend the money. That said, analysts broadly anticipate Beijing would open the fiscal taps to support consumption if the US slaps more tariffs on China’s exports after the election, a scenario likely to put the brakes on growth. This week’s legislative huddle may not be the “deadline” for raising the government debt limit, according to Goldman economists. A later meeting by lawmakers around year-end and the NPC’s full session in March are also “possible windows” to watch, they said. Investors may get a glimpse of what may be on the government’s planning board even before that. The Politburo, made up of the ruling Communist party’s top 24 officials including Xi, usually holds a meeting with a focus on the economy in early December, days before the Central Economic Work Conference takes place to set the agenda for the coming year. “The good thing is that investors are more afraid to short now given that we don’t really know the number that will come out and there is more room to get the next meeting ‘right,’” said Ivy Ng, chief investment officer for Asia Pacific at DWS Investments Hong Kong Ltd. “The consumption part is the wildcard.”