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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tenchusatsu who wrote (1499795)	11/8/2024 2:50:28 PM
From: Tenchusatsu	1 Recommendation Recommended By Fiscally Conservative Respond to of 1570492

Tenchu's Thoughts: Trump's Concept of a Plan When It Comes to Ukraine The news going around right now is that Trump is proposing a ceasefire and the establishment of a demilitarized zone across an 800-mile front: WSJ: Trump Team Proposes 20-Year Freeze on Ukraine’s NATO Bid in Exchange for Peace (Kyiv Post) Note that no US or UN forces will be used to patrol the front. That means only Ukrainian and other European soldiers will have to patrol it. *Why it's a good idea* - I've always said, either fight to win, or don't fight at all. Neither PooTin nor Zelensky can fight to win, so the best option for both of them is to stop fighting. - Yes, PooTin can rearm, but so can Ukraine. A ceasefire might actually help Ukraine more, as Europe starts spending much more on defense. - Going back to RuZZia, the sanctions will presumably remain in place. *They're now in a so-called "war economy" from which they cannot exit.* This will cripple RuZZia as they try to replenish their stockpiles of tanks, missiles, artillery, and manpower, more so than Europe. *Why it's a bad idea* - Appeasing literal fascists like PooTin has never worked out well for the free world. They will take advantage of any weakness on the part of their adversaries and continue their warmongering wherever they can get away with it. - Moreover, PooTin has proven not to be a rational actor. Few people predicted his invasion of Ukraine mostly because it would have been a bad idea. Even Trump acknowledges this. Hence we cannot assume that PooTin will negotiate in good faith. - Promising no UN or US soldiers to patrol the DMZ is just plain dumb. That's just Trump doing MAGA things. Yes, Europe needs to take more responsibility for its own regional security. However, forcing them to put troops in harm's way NOW is premature. Moreover, assuming European soldiers will just risk their lives for the Mango Mussolini is arrogant, to say the least. *Unknown factors* - How open is PooTin to negotiation? He already kept telling his people, especially his bloodthirsty Z-nationalists that comprise 25% of his population (and most of his base of support), that he wants ALL of Ukraine and beyond. Moreover, like I said before, RuZZia is already in a "war economy" which will be devastated if there is no more war. - How open is Zelensky to negotiation? Recently he has started making some hints toward negotiation, even though he keeps reiterating that he doesn't want to cede any internationally-recognized Ukrainian territory. And I saw a report saying that 60-something percent of Ukrainians support that POV. They might not appreciate Trump forcing them into concessions. - How open is Trump to negotiation? AFAIK, he'll just unilaterally withdraw all U.S. aid to Ukraine, because that's the easy path for him. Plus despite what he and his cult supporters claim, he has never been good at making deals when it comes to geopolitics. The only deals he knows how to make revolves around real estate speculation, and even that is questionable. - How open is the rest of Europe to negotiation? Poland obviously will not be, but France, Germany, and the UK might welcome it despite how much they want to defeat RuZZia. Türkiye might welcome it as well, and like it or not, Türkiye is a very important strategic member of NATO. *Best and Worst Case Scenarios* - Best case scenario? A ceasefire deal is reached, and Trump will have pulled yet another rabbit out of his hat. Whether or not RuZZia honors it in the future doesn't really matter, because Trump will have succeeded in buying time for both sides. And I still believe time is NOT on RuZZia's side, even though Ukraine has arguably been taking the worst of it. - Worst case scenario? War continues, Trump unilaterally withdraws, RuZZia makes substantial gains, and Europe then is forced to start deploying troops and aviation into the region. Then Trump, in his usual fashion, will blame everyone else for failing to bring the war to an end as he promised. Reality might end up somewhere in the middle. That assumes that I got the facts right, and based on what happened this week, those assumptions may be much further from reality than I imagined. But hey, at least we now have a "concept of a plan" toward peace in Ukraine. This is arguably better than what the Brandon administration had, which is to continue aid to Ukraine without plotting any concrete strategy for victory. As usual: *Either fight to win, or don't fight at all.* Tenchusatsu