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Technology Stocks : Ciena (CIEN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Richard H. who wrote (1353)	2/20/1998 8:10:00 PM
From: Maverick	Respond to of 12623

Ciena Corp. (Nasdaq: CIEN), a provider of bandwidth enhancement technology for fiberoptic communications networks, was slammed for $16 1/8 to $42 after announcing in conjunction with its Q1 1998 results that a major customer, WorldCom Inc. (Nasdaq: WCOM), will delay ordering new equipment until "the latter part of 1998." Ciena reported Q1 EPS of $0.37, which beat both estimates and Q4 1997 results by $0.02. The results represented a 184% increase over Q1 1997 EPS of $0.13. Ciena noted that the WorldCom delay will result in Q2 revenue that is "sequentially flat or possibly lower" than the first quarter, but the company was adamant that the push-out was not due to competitive pressures from companies like Lucent (NYSE: LU). Ciena stated in its conference call that it is still "comfortable" with 1998 revenue estimates of $600 million (due to the hope that AT&T and others might fill the revenue shortfall), and it expects gross margins to narrow to the 52-55% range and operating expenses to possibly rise to 32% of revenues. Using the conservative end of these figures, Ciena may still make $120 million in operating earnings for the year. Ciena currently trades at 30 times 1998 EPS estimates of $1.47 on mean revenue estimates of $565 million, which compared with its present growth rate is still by no means cheap. From Motley Fool's Evening News

To: Richard H. who wrote (1353)	2/20/1998 8:20:00 PM
From: Tim Bagwell	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12623

David Huber is long gone from Ciena. Last I heard he was starting another company in an unrelated field.

To: Richard H. who wrote (1353)	2/20/1998 9:13:00 PM
From: gdichaz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12623

Have to smile re the Gilder picks you cite. I am a fan too. Your choices are fascinating. Just shows how selective data can be misleading. Gilder was saying the GE chips were going to be a major competitive problem for GA chips over time because GE getting competitive in functionality - and price a fraction of GA. In fact, ANAD and TNGT bombed. VTSS whose chips are used for different purposes has not - yet. Gilder is a trend spotter. He makes no attempt to time purchase or sale of individual companies but tries to see which are riding an up curve in technology. Thought GE was starting upcurve and GA faced more competition in future. Re Ciena and his removal of stock. Frankly puzzled. Try to follow LU and NT and IMO the Lucent "product" is in the lab - i.e. vaporware. Have seen nothing on Nortel "product". Yet Ciena has new product due next month and new products for short distances (for which there is no competition as far as I have been able to find out) early next year. Wonder if Gilder too distracted with finishing his book and let someone else do "homework" on Ciena for him. Seems unlikely but think that better to watch and wait and see what actual competition really is before getting too excited one way or other re technological competition. This said, deferral by WCOM is a blow - temporary like Korea - but real. So what to do, don't have a clue yet. Note: Suggest that idea of selling TLAB to buy CIEN bears some more thought. If wanted to buy CIEN don't see TLAB as a particularly good source of funds. But all this IMO. Flawed human. Disclaimers. Etc. etc. Luck to all. Chaz.