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Biotech / Medical : Immunomedics (IMMU) - moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jhcimmu who wrote (62912)	11/19/2024 9:34:32 AM
From: erickerickson	1 Recommendation Recommended By jhcimmu Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 63305

SAVA maximizing strategy... ---------------- What do people here feel would be a shareholder maximizing strategy for a product launch: a) Partner with an existing global sales force b) Build out an organic sales force c) Sell the company to large bio ---------------- It Depends (tm). Time-frame and trial results alter the calculus in my (uninformed) opinion. Knock-your-socks-off results? Then (b) could be viable; just put up a mail-order website. OK, I'm exaggerating, but with amazing results, physicians should be beating the door down, not to mention advocacy groups demanding it. It'd still take time, mind you. Reasonable results? (a) makes sense, you'd need a sales force to go out and make physicians aware of the product, it wouldn't advertise itself like it would with stellar results. Building a sales force from scratch is not easy, nor is it SAVAs area of expertise. My guess here would be a very nice royalty percentage though... I'm not in favor of (c), assuming positive results. Which I am assuming, b/c if this goes the way of most AD drugs, then it's (d), sell the furniture. Selling to a big bio would get the fastest return, but I've got to believe that with good results, a bit of patience will see the best return under (a) or (b). Assuming the need for additional production capacity, there'll be a delay for certification of whatever manufacturing is required. NOTE: I have absolutely no clue how difficult production would be, haven't really thought about it. A pill seems like it would be much simpler to manufacture and certify than something like Trodelvy, but I have no data to back that up. Wrapped around this is staying solvent between now and then. They've got something like $200M in the bank, but their expenses vary wildly and I don't recall when the $40M bill comes due. Q3 was a $30M loss. Q2 was $126M loss. That said, good results should see the stock price improve so dilution shouldn't be a major concern, if they had to sell stock at all. Might could be a loan at reasonable rates (and no damn warrants) would get them through. Ending the trials should see some reduction in expenses, offset by ramping up sales so who knows? I think this is a different scenario than Trodelvy. Trodelvy needs a much more sophisticated sales effort since it has pre-conditions (metastasized or inoperable, prior therapies that have failed), and it's infusion-based. Plus it's in a more crowded field. Far more complicated than "take this pill if you have AD, it's the best treatment out there". Yeah, I'm simplifying, the point is that it's a simpler sales cycle. At least that's my theory. I they can get the blood test working, that would certainly expand the market. And a minor rant: I've always been annoyed by phrases like "the patient failed therapy". The patient doesn't fail, therapy fails...

To: jhcimmu who wrote (62912)	11/19/2024 4:37:06 PM
From: scorman1	3 Recommendations Recommended By erippetoe jhcimmu lafdsmokey Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 63305

SAVA going it alone is contrary to what Remi has said over the years and I am in total agreement. A BP partnership with upfront sizeable $ gives the staff the means to continue developing with SavaDX first on the list, followed by other neuros, cancer, whatever has been sitting on back burners. Following a partnership (incl ? worldwide, Japan, EU, Australia, etc), the revenue become so enormous, that competition for takeover becomes almost obvious. I can hope that the prescription is around $10k/yr to get everyone clamoring from Medicare, EMA, etc and nail the coffin on the pseudo brain bleed treatments. I have pegged my exit SP at $300 and anything above is gravy .... only hope is that buyout isn't too early and we get shafted for a quick buck. Don't think rival bidders would let this gold mine pass them up so easily. BTW, Manny was the unnamed part of the JS quad interview two years ago, along with Hillary's dad who I believe passed from "old age" after 3 years treatment. Not sure what happened to the 5 orig OL patients that showed 50% cogs improvement at one year and were from 5 diff locations. Doc "Doug" had known and reported on two orig OL, and I believe he posted on this forum before and would like to hear from him again.